Best start date
120 days out
Enough time to compare offers before the renewal deadline controls the decision.
Main output
Monthly gap
The rate matters, but the payment increase decides the budget strain.
Do not assume
One quoted rate
Run a base case, a worse case, and a switching case before choosing a term.
Short answer: what the calculator should tell you
The calculator should show your old payment, likely renewal payment, monthly increase, annual increase, and the effect of changing amortization or making a lump-sum prepayment. It should not pretend there is one universal "2026 rate." Your renewal depends on the lender quote, insured status, loan-to-value ratio, income file, credit history, property type, and whether you are renewing, switching, or refinancing.
Illustrative renewal payment scenarios
These examples use a 25-year amortization and rounded monthly payments. They are not rate quotes. They show why payment shock can feel very different from household to household even when the rate change looks similar.
| Scenario | Balance | Old rate | Renewal rate | Old payment | New payment | Monthly change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smaller balance | $400,000 | 1.79% | 4.49% | $1,655 | $2,221 | +$566 (+34%) |
| Middle balance | $500,000 | 1.89% | 4.79% | $2,093 | $2,862 | +$770 (+37%) |
| Larger balance | $650,000 | 2.19% | 5.19% | $2,816 | $3,872 | +$1,057 (+38%) |
How to use the renewal calculator without fooling yourself
- Enter the current balance, not the original mortgage amount. Your renewal risk is based on the debt that remains.
- Use your current payment as the baseline. That is the number your household budget already absorbed.
- Test three renewal rates. Use your lender's offer, a competitor quote, and a higher backup rate.
- Keep amortization realistic. Extending amortization can lower the payment but usually increases total interest.
- Compare the monthly gap with your real surplus. A $600 increase is manageable for one household and destabilizing for another.
The number to watch
If the payment increase is larger than your monthly savings after normal bills, the renewal problem is not just a mortgage problem. It is a household cash-flow problem. Start with the lender, but also model spending cuts, prepayment, term choice, and whether holding the property still works.
What the 2026 source picture says
The renewal wave is real, but it is not the same for every borrower. National averages can understate the stress in expensive cities and overstate it for households with smaller balances, higher incomes, or more equity. The table below summarizes the source-backed facts this page relies on.
Bank of Canada
July 2025 staff analytical note
The Bank expected many 2025 and 2026 renewers to face higher payments, with the size of the increase depending on original rate, balance, and mortgage type.
CMHC
February 2026 Housing Observer
CMHC described the renewal wave as regionally uneven, with Toronto and Vancouver borrowers more exposed when high debt meets weaker resale conditions.
OSFI
Minimum qualifying rate guidance
For new uninsured borrowing, the qualifying rate is generally the greater of the contract rate plus 2 percentage points or 5.25%. Straight switches at renewal are treated differently when the loan amount and amortization are not increased.
FCAC
Mortgage renewal and financial difficulty guidance
FCAC tells borrowers to compare offers before renewal and to contact the lender early if higher payments create financial pressure.
Your 120-day renewal checklist
120 days
Ask your current lender for an early renewal quote and payout statement.
90 days
Get at least one competing quote and confirm whether switching costs are covered.
60 days
Run the calculator with lender, competitor, and conservative backup scenarios.
30 days
Choose the term, prepayment amount, amortization plan, or sale/refinance path.
Decision paths after you calculate the payment
Renew with current lender
The offer is competitive and switching savings are small.
You may leave money on the table if you never shop.
Switch lenders
A competitor offers a lower payment and the switch does not add debt or amortization.
Confirm appraisal, legal, discharge, and qualification details.
Prepay at renewal
You have cash earning less than the mortgage rate and still keep an emergency fund.
Do not drain liquidity if income is unstable.
Extend amortization
The payment gap is too large and you need breathing room.
Total interest cost can rise materially.
Prepare a sale plan
The renewal payment breaks the budget even after realistic adjustments.
Waiting until arrears begin usually reduces choices.
Frequently asked questions
How early should I start comparing renewal offers?
Start around 120 days before maturity. That gives you enough time to get a current lender offer, compare alternatives, estimate switching costs, and avoid signing under deadline pressure.
Should I pick the lowest monthly payment?
Not automatically. A lower payment can come from a lower rate, a longer amortization, or different loan terms. The best choice is the one that keeps monthly cash flow stable without creating hidden long-term cost or qualification problems.
What if the calculator shows I cannot afford the renewal?
Contact the lender before the maturity date, ask about available hardship or restructuring options, and compare that with a sale or refinance plan. FCAC guidance is clear that borrowers should contact their financial institution early when they expect payment difficulty.