Canada Housing Market Forecast 2026
Canada's 2026 housing market forecast is not a clean boom or a clean crash. The source-backed base case is stabilization: sales improve from weak levels, national prices rise only modestly or stay close to flat, and affordability keeps the rebound local. Ontario remains the softest large market, Vancouver is still severely stretched, and the Prairies look more resilient but less overheated than they were.
BubbleWatch read
Stabilization with stress underneath
The national forecast only looks calm because very different local markets are averaging each other out. The decision edge is city-level: whether local incomes, rents, renewal payments, and inventory support the asking price.
CREA 2026 price forecast
National average home price forecast, up 1.5% annually in CREA's April 2026 update.
CREA 2026 sales forecast
Residential MLS sales forecast for 2026, up 1% from 2025.
BubbleWatch tracked avg
7.0x average price-to-income multiple across tracked cities.
Renewal risk
Bank of Canada estimate for mortgage holders renewing in 2025 and 2026 likely seeing payment increases.
Short answer
Will the Canadian housing market recover in 2026?
A limited recovery is more likely than a broad boom. CREA's forecast has national sales only slightly above 2025 and average prices up modestly. CMHC expects prices to stabilize nationally, while Ontario remains the main weak spot. TD expects sales to improve through the second half of 2026, but not return to pre-pandemic norms until later.
For households, the better question is whether a specific city has become affordable. BubbleWatch's city data still shows severe payment stress in the most expensive metros. That means a sales rebound can coexist with weak affordability, cautious buyers, and continued discounts in over-supplied property types.
Forecast consensus
What the major sources are saying
| Source | Date | Read | Forecast signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| CREA | April 16, 2026 forecast | Muted national growth | CREA forecasted 474,972 MLS sales in 2026, up 1% from 2025, and a national average price of $688,955, up 1.5%. |
| CMHC | 2026 Housing Market Outlook | Stabilization, not a boom | CMHC expected national prices to stabilize and rise modestly, while Ontario prices were likely to keep falling in 2026 before recovering later. |
| TD Economics | July 3, 2026 outlook | Better activity, soft pricing | TD expected national sales to grind higher through the second half of 2026, but remain below pre-pandemic norms until the second half of 2027. |
| Bank of Canada | 2025 staff note covering 2025-2026 renewals | Renewal pressure remains | The Bank of Canada estimated that about 60% of mortgage holders renewing in 2025 and 2026 would likely see payments increase from December 2024 levels. |
Scenarios
Three realistic paths for the rest of 2026
The forecast changes when the trigger changes. Mortgage rates, unemployment, listings, and renewal terms matter more than a single national average price number.
Most consistent with current sources
Base case
Flat to modestly higher nationally
Sales recover from weak 2026 lows, but affordability and renewal pressure keep prices from accelerating.
Needs easier financing
Bull case
Clearer price gains in late 2026
Bond yields drift lower, job losses stay contained, and Ontario and B.C. absorb listings faster than expected.
Regional, not uniform
Bear case
Further declines in expensive urban pockets
Renewal stress, condo inventory, or unemployment turns weak demand into forced discounting.
Regional map
The forecast by region
Canada is too large and too uneven for one headline. Use the national forecast as the weather report, then check the city page before making a decision.
Ontario
Weakest large-province price setup
CMHC and TD both point to Ontario softness, while BubbleWatch city data shows high ownership costs in Toronto and Ottawa relative to local income.
British Columbia
Expensive, selective, still stretched
Vancouver has price relief, but the income test remains severe. A sales rebound can happen before affordability is actually repaired.
Alberta
Cooling toward balance
Calgary and Edmonton still look more affordable than coastal markets, but inventory and apartment supply make the forecast more segment-specific.
Quebec
Slower, not broken
Montreal sales have eased while listings rise, but prices remain supported enough that buyers still need full rent-vs-buy math.
Prairies outside Alberta
Tighter than the national headline
Relative affordability and stronger local conditions mean Saskatchewan and Manitoba can diverge from Ontario-style correction narratives.
City forecasts
Forecast pages for the markets people actually search
These pages turn the national forecast into local decisions: price trend, rent pressure, income stretch, renewal risk, and buyer leverage.
Ontario
Toronto housing market forecast
Toronto's 2026 housing forecast is fragile stabilization, not a clean rebound. Prices have already corrected in BubbleWatch's city data, but ownership still consumes too much local income and the market remains highly sensitive to listings, condo inventory, and renewal payments.
British Columbia
Vancouver housing market forecast
Vancouver's 2026 housing forecast is a high-stress pause. Benchmark prices are below last year's level, but the region remains one of Canada's most income-stretched ownership markets and renters have limited slack.
Alberta
Calgary housing market forecast
Calgary's 2026 housing forecast is no longer a simple boom story. The city is still more affordable than Toronto or Vancouver on income math, but higher inventory and softer apartment demand are making property type matter much more.
Alberta
Edmonton housing market forecast
Edmonton's 2026 housing forecast is balanced but improving for buyers. It remains one of the more affordable large Canadian markets in BubbleWatch's data, and rising inventory gives households more choice even though year-over-year price levels are not collapsing.
Ontario
Ottawa housing market forecast
Ottawa's 2026 housing forecast is a balanced-market grind. Prices are not falling enough to make the city cheap, but elevated supply and softer sales keep buyers from facing the same urgency seen in hotter cycles.
Quebec
Montreal housing market forecast
Montreal's 2026 housing forecast is a gradual slowdown with sticky prices. Sales have softened and listings have risen, but the affordability picture is still not easy because prices remain high relative to local income and rents are not loose.
Risk screen
Highest stress cities
British Columbia
British Columbia
British Columbia
British Columbia
British Columbia
British Columbia
British Columbia
British Columbia
Buyer leverage
Fastest cooling cities
Negotiation depends on property type and inventory.
Negotiation depends on property type and inventory.
Negotiation depends on property type and inventory.
Negotiation depends on property type and inventory.
Negotiation depends on property type and inventory.
Negotiation depends on property type and inventory.
Better math
Lower stress choices
Decision framework
How to use this forecast without fooling yourself
Buyers
Use the forecast to set your negotiation stance, then underwrite the exact property. Do not let a national recovery headline override payment-to-income math.
Owners renewing
Run the renewal payment before deciding to sell, refinance, or extend amortization. Renewal stress can turn a soft market into a forced decision.
Renters
Compare the ownership premium against rent, closing costs, repairs, and the return on your down payment. Waiting is only useful if it preserves cash.
Sellers
Price to current comparables. If listings are rising and buyers have financing conditions back, stale pricing becomes a public signal.
Sources and limits
Why this forecast is cautious
| Source | What it contributes |
|---|---|
| CREA April 16, 2026 forecast | CREA forecasted 474,972 MLS sales in 2026, up 1% from 2025, and a national average price of $688,955, up 1.5%. |
| CMHC 2026 Housing Market Outlook | CMHC expected national prices to stabilize and rise modestly, while Ontario prices were likely to keep falling in 2026 before recovering later. |
| TD Economics July 3, 2026 outlook | TD expected national sales to grind higher through the second half of 2026, but remain below pre-pandemic norms until the second half of 2027. |
| Bank of Canada 2025 staff note covering 2025-2026 renewals | The Bank of Canada estimated that about 60% of mortgage holders renewing in 2025 and 2026 would likely see payments increase from December 2024 levels. |
Forecast limits
This page is a decision aid, not a price target. CREA, CMHC, TD, and the Bank of Canada publish different types of evidence: resale forecasts, housing outlooks, bank economics, and household-credit analysis. BubbleWatch adds city-level affordability math to show where those national reads are most likely to matter for a real household.
FAQ
Canada housing forecast questions
What is the Canada housing market forecast for 2026?
The most defensible 2026 forecast is a split market: national prices stabilize or rise modestly, sales improve from weak levels, Ontario remains the main soft spot, and affordability pressure keeps any rebound uneven.
Will Canadian home prices fall in 2026?
A broad national crash is not the base case in current CREA and CMHC forecasts, but further price declines are plausible in expensive urban pockets, especially where inventory is high, condo demand is weak, or renewal stress forces sellers to negotiate.
Is 2026 a good time to buy a house in Canada?
It depends on the city and household balance sheet. Buyers have more leverage in softer markets, but a good purchase still needs a payment that works under today's rates, a realistic five-year holding period, and enough cash after closing for repairs and renewal risk.
Which Canadian housing markets look riskiest?
The riskiest markets are not simply the most expensive. BubbleWatch flags markets where prices are high relative to incomes, rents are stretched, ownership payments exceed rent by a wide margin, and recent price momentum is weak.
What could make the forecast wrong?
The forecast could change quickly if inflation, bond yields, unemployment, immigration, or mortgage renewals move differently than expected. Housing is local, so a national forecast should always be checked against current city data.