Canada Housing Market Dashboard
Canada is not in one housing market. The 2026 picture is a split market: national prices are stabilizing, Ontario remains fragile, Prairie markets still have tighter supply, and high-cost cities are still failing the income test. This dashboard turns city prices, rents, incomes, mortgage payments, vacancy, and price momentum into a single BubbleWatch stress view.
National stress read
High stress, local relief
The dashboard average does not mean the whole country is equally risky. It shows how much of the national market is still stretched after rate cuts, softer sales, and uneven regional price moves.
Tracked cities
City pages linked from this dashboard
National avg price
7x national median income
Avg mortgage rate
Used in BubbleWatch payment assumptions
Avg YoY city move
Unweighted average across tracked cities
Short answer
Is the Canadian housing market getting healthier?
It is getting more balanced in some places, but it is not broadly affordable. CREA's 2026 forecast points to only modest national price growth, CMHC expects stabilization rather than a clean boom, and the Bank of Canada renewal analysis still leaves many households exposed to higher payments. BubbleWatch's city data shows the same split: some markets are cooling enough to create buyer leverage, while the most expensive cities remain severely stretched against local income.
The practical read is simple: use national headlines for context, then use city-level math for decisions. A market can be "recovering" in sales volume while still being unaffordable for a household earning local wages.
City forecasts
Forecast pages for Canada's highest-interest markets
Each city forecast combines local board signals with BubbleWatch affordability math, so buyers and owners can see whether the headline market is actually improving for their payment.
Ontario
Toronto housing forecast
Toronto's 2026 housing forecast is fragile stabilization, not a clean rebound. Prices have already corrected in BubbleWatch's city data, but ownership still consumes too much local income and the market remains highly sensitive to listings, condo inventory, and renewal payments.
Open forecastBritish Columbia
Vancouver housing forecast
Vancouver's 2026 housing forecast is a high-stress pause. Benchmark prices are below last year's level, but the region remains one of Canada's most income-stretched ownership markets and renters have limited slack.
Open forecastAlberta
Calgary housing forecast
Calgary's 2026 housing forecast is no longer a simple boom story. The city is still more affordable than Toronto or Vancouver on income math, but higher inventory and softer apartment demand are making property type matter much more.
Open forecastAlberta
Edmonton housing forecast
Edmonton's 2026 housing forecast is balanced but improving for buyers. It remains one of the more affordable large Canadian markets in BubbleWatch's data, and rising inventory gives households more choice even though year-over-year price levels are not collapsing.
Open forecastOntario
Ottawa housing forecast
Ottawa's 2026 housing forecast is a balanced-market grind. Prices are not falling enough to make the city cheap, but elevated supply and softer sales keep buyers from facing the same urgency seen in hotter cycles.
Open forecastQuebec
Montreal housing forecast
Montreal's 2026 housing forecast is a gradual slowdown with sticky prices. Sales have softened and listings have risen, but the affordability picture is still not easy because prices remain high relative to local income and rents are not loose.
Open forecastCity rankings
Highest housing stress scores
The score blends ownership stretch, rent pressure, estimated mortgage burden, vacancy, and recent price momentum. It is designed to flag markets where households need the most caution.
| Rank | City | Score | Avg price | Price/income | Payment/income | Rent/income | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Vancouver British Columbia | 100 Severe | $1,154,000 | 12.3x | 64% | 38.2% | -3.8% |
| #2 | Victoria British Columbia | 100 Severe | $915,200 | 10.6x | 55% | 33.2% | -1.2% |
| #3 | Kelowna British Columbia | 100 Severe | $795,400 | 9.8x | 51% | 32.9% | -1.5% |
| #4 | Nanaimo British Columbia | 100 Severe | $774,900 | 9.6x | 50% | 32.5% | -0.8% |
| #5 | Abbotsford British Columbia | 100 Severe | $850,000 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
| #6 | Chilliwack British Columbia | 100 Severe | $850,000 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
| #7 | Kamloops British Columbia | 100 Severe | $637,500 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
| #8 | Prince George British Columbia | 100 Severe | $637,500 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
| #9 | Surrey British Columbia | 100 Severe | $1,105,000 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
| #10 | Burnaby British Columbia | 100 Severe | $1,105,000 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
| #11 | Richmond British Columbia | 100 Severe | $1,105,000 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
| #12 | Coquitlam British Columbia | 100 Severe | $1,105,000 | 10x | 52% | 33.9% | +1.2% |
Buyer opportunity
Markets where the math is improving
Toronto, Ontario
-8.2% YoY price move, 9.3x income, 1.4% vacancy
Hamilton, Ontario
-6.5% YoY price move, 8.5x income, 1.8% vacancy
Regina, Saskatchewan
+2.9% YoY price move, 4x income, 3.8% vacancy
Saskatoon, Saskatchewan
+2.5% YoY price move, 4.5x income, 3.5% vacancy
St. John's, Newfoundland and Labrador
+3.1% YoY price move, 4.1x income, 3% vacancy
Winnipeg, Manitoba
+2.7% YoY price move, 4.5x income, 3.1% vacancy
Yellowknife, Northwest Territories
+2.1% YoY price move, 4.6x income, 3.5% vacancy
Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario
-2.1% YoY price move, 7.5x income, 1.9% vacancy
Edmonton, Alberta
+4.5% YoY price move, 4.6x income, 2.5% vacancy
Red Deer, Alberta
+3.5% YoY price move, 4.6x income, 2.8% vacancy
Cooling watch
Fastest price cooling signals
Ontario
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
Ontario
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
British Columbia
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
Ontario
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
British Columbia
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
Ontario
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
British Columbia
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
Ontario
Cooling helps negotiation, but it can also signal weaker liquidity. Check property type and inventory before assuming a bargain.
What the dashboard says
The 2026 market is a renewal test, not just a price chart
A small price drop does not repair affordability if mortgage payments still absorb too much income. A sales rebound does not prove a new boom if listings remain stale or buyers are qualifying at stretched debt ratios. The dashboard weighs each city by household carrying pressure because that is where forced decisions show up first.
For buyers
Treat high-stress cities as condition-heavy markets. Use financing, inspection, appraisal, and condo-document conditions even when sellers argue the market has turned.
Next stepFor owners
Renewal risk is concentrated where payments already consume a large share of income. Stress-test your new payment before extending amortization or accepting the first bank offer.
Next stepFor renters
Rent pressure matters, but renting can still beat buying in high ownership-premium cities. Compare monthly cash flow and down-payment opportunity cost before rushing in.
Next stepRent pressure
Rent is the pressure valve, but it is also part of the problem
In a healthy market, renting gives households time to save and wait. In a stressed market, high rent delays the down payment while ownership remains out of reach. That is why rent-to-income belongs beside price-to-income in any serious housing dashboard.
Avg rent $2,980 per month against $93,500 median income.
Avg rent $2,400 per month against $85,000 median income.
Avg rent $2,400 per month against $85,000 median income.
Avg rent $1,800 per month against $63,800 median income.
Avg rent $1,800 per month against $63,800 median income.
Avg rent $3,120 per month against $110,500 median income.
Avg rent $3,120 per month against $110,500 median income.
Avg rent $3,120 per month against $110,500 median income.
Sources and method
Why this page can be cited
| Source | Date | Dashboard signal |
|---|---|---|
| CREA quarterly forecast | 2026 forecast | CREA forecasted the national average home price at $688,955 for 2026, up 1.5% annually, with little growth expected in B.C., Alberta, and Ontario. |
| CMHC Housing Market Outlook | 2026 outlook | CMHC expected national prices to stabilize and rise modestly, while Ontario remained the main weak spot because inventory and muted sales continued to weigh on expensive urban centres. |
| Bank of Canada renewal analysis | 2025 staff note covering 2025-2026 renewals | The Bank of Canada estimated that about 60% of mortgage holders renewing in 2025 and 2026 would see payment increases, with the average increase around 6% for 2026 renewals. |
| Statistics Canada housing data | 2025 annual housing starts table | Statistics Canada records annual housing starts through 2025, giving context for the supply side of the affordability gap. |
Scoring formula
The stress score is a weighted screen, not a prediction. BubbleWatch combines price-to-income, estimated mortgage payment-to-income, rent-to-income, rental vacancy pressure, year-over-year price momentum, and the premium of ownership payments over rent. Higher scores mean the market deserves stricter underwriting, more negotiation, or more caution.
- Price-to-income: tests whether prices are anchored to local wages.
- Payment-to-income: converts prices and mortgage rates into monthly strain.
- Rent-to-income: shows whether renters can realistically save.
- Vacancy and momentum: separate tight markets from cooling ones.
FAQ
Canada housing dashboard questions
What is the BubbleWatch Housing Stress Score?
The BubbleWatch Housing Stress Score is a 0 to 100 city-level score built from price-to-income, estimated mortgage payment-to-income, rent-to-income, vacancy pressure, recent price momentum, and the ownership premium over rent. It is a screening tool, not a forecast.
Is Canada's housing market recovering in 2026?
The 2026 recovery is uneven. National forecasts point to modest stabilization rather than a clean boom, while Ontario remains weaker than many Prairie markets and high-cost cities still have severe affordability pressure.
Which Canadian cities look most stretched?
The most stretched cities in this dashboard are the markets with the highest combined stress scores, especially where prices are many times local income, rents are high relative to wages, and estimated mortgage payments consume a large share of household income.
How should buyers use this dashboard?
Buyers should use the dashboard as a first-pass filter. A high-stress city needs stricter mortgage math, stronger inspection and financing conditions, and current local comparables. A higher buyer-opportunity score means the math may be improving, but it does not replace neighbourhood-level due diligence.