September 2026 Canadian Housing Affordability Meter

Short answer: In September 2026, the typical Canadian home costs 7x the typical household income, and servicing it consumes roughly 32% of that income in mortgage payments alone - before property tax, maintenance, or utilities. Vancouver remains the least affordable market by a wide margin at 12.3x income (66% payment-to-income), while Regina is the only market in the country still under the 4x benchmark at 4.0x. 29 of the 76 markets we track sit in our "Severe" tier, and prices are still falling in 10 markets - led by Toronto, down 8.2% year-over-year - even as the Prairies and Atlantic Canada keep grinding higher.

This meter scores all 76 Canadian housing markets on the same framework: live price and rate data, refreshed September 30, 2026 from Bank of Canada and CREA-fed pipelines, run through standard affordability math with every assumption stated below. No forecasts, no vibes - just where the money goes.

September 2026 national snapshot

Measure	September 2026	What it means
National benchmark price (CREA, composite)	$668,219	The MLS Home Price Index composite for the country
Average across 76 tracked markets	$710,282	Simple average of the markets in this meter
Median household income (tracked markets)	$102,000	Pre-tax household income
Price-to-income ratio (national)	7x	The headline affordability number
Live 5-year fixed mortgage rate	4.49%	Bank of Canada weekly series, Sep 30, 2026
Markets under 4x income	6	Historically the "affordable" benchmark
Markets with year-over-year price declines	10	The correction is real, but uneven

A few things jump out immediately. First, the national price-to-income ratio of 7x is roughly double the long-run historical norm for Canada. Second, the correction that began in Ontario's big cities is spreading - 10 markets now show year-over-year price declines. Third, the rate environment is doing most of the damage: with 5-year fixed rates still near 4.49%, payment burdens remain brutal even where prices have fallen. That third point is why this meter scores markets on two measures, not one.

How this meter works (methodology)

Every number below is derived from the same September 30, 2026 data refresh: 76 markets with live average home prices fed from CREA national statistics and Bank of Canada mortgage rate data, plus median incomes and average rents per market. Here is exactly what we do with that data:

Price-to-income (PTI). Average home price divided by median household income. The classic, rate-independent measure of how far prices have drifted from local earnings. A PTI of 4x has historically marked the boundary of "affordable"; the long-run Canadian norm sits between 3x and 4x.

Mortgage payment estimate. The monthly payment on the average-priced home with 20% down ($20 of the price financed is 80%), a 25-year amortization, at each market's current mortgage rate (near 4.49% nationally). We use the standard amortization formula. This is an estimate, clearly labeled as such throughout - actual payments vary with down payment, amortization, fees, and the exact rate a borrower qualifies for.

Payment-to-income. The estimated monthly mortgage payment divided by monthly household income. This is the measure that matters for daily life: it answers "what share of our paycheque goes to the bank?" A payment-to-income above 32% would fail most lenders' gross debt service screens for a new borrower - so markets scoring 40%, 50%, or 60%+ are pricing out the median household entirely, even one with 20% down.

Affordability tiers. We assign each market to one of four tiers by price-to-income: Affordable (4x and under - the historic norm), Stretched (4–6x - requires dual incomes and discipline), Strained (6–8x - requires either very high income, a large down payment, or both), and Severe (over 8x - the median household is structurally locked out of ownership).

Year-over-year change. Price change versus the same month last year, in percent. Negative means the market got cheaper; positive means it got more expensive.

Two caveats, stated plainly. Smaller B.C. interior markets are estimated from regional board data rather than city-specific boards, so treat those rows as regional proxies. And average prices blend all housing types - a market's average can sit well above what a first-time buyer actually shops for (see our Toronto condo price-per-square-foot analysis for why the entry-level segment tells a different story).

The tier framework: where 76 markets land

Here is the September 2026 distribution:

• Affordable (4x and under): 1 market - Regina alone (4.0x). One market out of 76.
• Stretched (4–6x): 36 markets - the Prairies, much of Atlantic Canada, Quebec City, and smaller Ontario and Quebec cities. This is where ownership still works for a dual-income household willing to budget carefully.
• Strained (6–8x): 10 markets - Calgary, Montreal, Ottawa, and parts of southern Ontario. Buying here increasingly requires either a top-quintile income or substantial family help.
• Severe (over 8x): 29 markets - Greater Vancouver, Greater Toronto, and the Ontario commuter belt. In these markets the median household cannot buy the average home at current rates. Period.

The uncomfortable read: 39 of 76 markets - more than half - are Strained or Severe. And "Affordable" is down to a single Saskatchewan city.

The full scored table: 76 markets, September 2026

Sorted from least affordable to most affordable by payment-to-income. *Estimated payment assumes 20% down, 25-year amortization, at the current market mortgage rate. Prices and rates are live September 30, 2026 data; payments are derived estimates, not quotes.

#	City	Avg home price	Price-to-income	Est. monthly payment*	Payment-to-income	Avg monthly rent	YoY price change	Tier
1	Vancouver	$1,154,000	12.3x	$5,126	65.8%	$2,980	-3.8%	Severe
2	Victoria	$915,200	10.6x	$4,065	56.7%	$2,380	-1.2%	Severe
3	Abbotsford	$850,000	10.0x	$3,776	53.3%	$2,400	+1.2%	Severe
4	Chilliwack	$850,000	10.0x	$3,776	53.3%	$2,400	+1.2%	Severe
5	Surrey	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	$3,120	+1.2%	Severe
6	Burnaby	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	$3,120	+1.2%	Severe
7	Richmond	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	$3,120	+1.2%	Severe
8	Coquitlam	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	$3,120	+1.2%	Severe
9	Kamloops	$637,500	10.0x	$2,832	53.3%	$1,800	+1.2%	Severe
10	Prince George	$637,500	10.0x	$2,832	53.3%	$1,800	+1.2%	Severe
11	Kelowna	$795,400	9.8x	$3,533	52.3%	$2,220	-1.5%	Severe
12	Nanaimo	$774,900	9.6x	$3,442	51.3%	$2,180	-0.8%	Severe
13	Toronto	$968,400	9.3x	$4,302	49.6%	$2,850	-8.2%	Severe
14	Mississauga	$975,000	8.5x	$4,331	45.4%	$2,990	+1.2%	Severe
15	Brampton	$975,000	8.5x	$4,331	45.4%	$2,990	+1.2%	Severe
16	Markham	$975,000	8.5x	$4,331	45.4%	$2,990	+1.2%	Severe
17	Vaughan	$975,000	8.5x	$4,331	45.4%	$2,990	+1.2%	Severe
18	Burlington	$975,000	8.5x	$4,331	45.4%	$2,990	+1.2%	Severe
19	Oakville	$975,000	8.5x	$4,331	45.4%	$2,990	+1.2%	Severe
20	Niagara Falls	$562,500	8.5x	$2,499	45.4%	$1,730	+1.2%	Severe
21	Windsor	$562,500	8.5x	$2,499	45.4%	$1,730	+1.2%	Severe
22	Thunder Bay	$562,500	8.5x	$2,499	45.4%	$1,730	+1.2%	Severe
23	Peterborough	$562,500	8.5x	$2,499	45.4%	$1,730	+1.2%	Severe
24	Belleville	$562,500	8.5x	$2,499	45.4%	$1,730	+1.2%	Severe
25	Oshawa	$750,000	8.5x	$3,332	45.4%	$2,300	+1.2%	Severe
26	Barrie	$750,000	8.5x	$3,332	45.4%	$2,300	+1.2%	Severe
27	St. Catharines	$750,000	8.5x	$3,332	45.4%	$2,300	+1.2%	Severe
28	Newmarket	$750,000	8.5x	$3,332	45.4%	$2,300	+1.2%	Severe
29	Hamilton	$792,300	8.5x	$3,519	45.2%	$2,120	-6.5%	Severe
30	Guelph	$812,500	7.8x	$3,609	41.6%	$2,480	-1.2%	Strained
31	Halifax	$602,140	7.7x	$2,675	41.2%	$2,200	+2.6%	Strained
32	Kitchener-Waterloo	$732,400	7.5x	$3,253	40.0%	$2,080	-2.1%	Strained
33	London	$612,500	7.3x	$2,721	39.1%	$1,880	-1.5%	Strained
34	Kingston	$645,000	7.3x	$2,865	39.1%	$1,950	+2.1%	Strained
35	Montreal	$595,400	7.3x	$2,645	38.7%	$1,920	+1.2%	Strained
36	Ottawa	$678,400	6.8x	$3,014	36.3%	$2,280	-1.2%	Strained
37	Calgary	$685,000	6.3x	$3,043	33.8%	$2,180	+4.8%	Strained
38	Charlottetown	$440,220	6.1x	$1,956	32.6%	$1,650	+2.4%	Strained
39	Whitehorse	$581,900	6.1x	$2,585	32.3%	$1,750	+1.8%	Strained
40	Longueuil	$450,000	5.9x	$1,999	31.6%	$1,400	+1.2%	Stretched
41	Gatineau	$450,000	5.9x	$1,999	31.6%	$1,400	+1.2%	Stretched
42	Lévis	$450,000	5.9x	$1,999	31.6%	$1,400	+1.2%	Stretched
43	Chicoutimi	$337,500	5.9x	$1,499	31.6%	$1,050	+1.2%	Stretched
44	Drummondville	$337,500	5.9x	$1,499	31.6%	$1,050	+1.2%	Stretched
45	Saint-Jérôme	$337,500	5.9x	$1,499	31.6%	$1,050	+1.2%	Stretched
46	Laval	$585,000	5.9x	$2,599	31.6%	$1,820	+1.2%	Stretched
47	Sudbury	$488,700	5.7x	$2,171	30.2%	$1,820	+1.8%	Stretched
48	Sherbrooke	$415,000	5.6x	$1,843	29.9%	$1,250	+5.8%	Stretched
49	Iqaluit	$571,780	5.6x	$2,540	29.9%	$2,500	+2.7%	Stretched
50	Moncton	$399,740	5.6x	$1,776	29.6%	$1,550	+4.2%	Stretched
51	Quebec City	$425,200	5.5x	$1,889	29.1%	$1,520	+5.2%	Stretched
52	Airdrie	$500,000	5.3x	$2,221	28.1%	$1,700	+1.2%	Stretched
53	St. Albert	$650,000	5.3x	$2,887	28.1%	$2,210	+1.2%	Stretched
54	Grande Prairie	$500,000	5.3x	$2,221	28.1%	$1,700	+1.2%	Stretched
55	Leduc	$500,000	5.3x	$2,221	28.1%	$1,700	+1.2%	Stretched
56	Medicine Hat	$375,000	5.3x	$1,666	28.0%	$1,280	+1.2%	Stretched
57	Moose Jaw	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
58	Prince Albert	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
59	Swift Current	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
60	Brandon	$400,000	5.0x	$1,777	26.7%	$1,500	+1.2%	Stretched
61	Thompson	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
62	Sydney	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
63	Truro	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
64	Fredericton	$400,000	5.0x	$1,777	26.7%	$1,500	+1.2%	Stretched
65	Summerside	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
66	Corner Brook	$300,000	5.0x	$1,333	26.7%	$1,130	+1.2%	Stretched
67	Trois-Rivières	$352,400	4.9x	$1,565	26.4%	$1,180	+5.3%	Stretched
68	Saint John	$318,780	4.7x	$1,416	25.0%	$1,350	+6.8%	Stretched
69	Lethbridge	$418,200	4.7x	$1,858	24.9%	$1,680	+4.1%	Stretched
70	Edmonton	$488,200	4.6x	$2,169	24.8%	$1,720	+4.5%	Stretched
71	Yellowknife	$500,940	4.6x	$2,225	24.7%	$1,950	+2.1%	Stretched
72	Red Deer	$425,000	4.6x	$1,888	24.6%	$1,550	+3.5%	Stretched
73	Winnipeg	$379,500	4.5x	$1,686	23.8%	$1,500	+2.7%	Stretched
74	Saskatoon	$409,860	4.5x	$1,821	23.7%	$1,450	+2.5%	Stretched
75	St. John's	$339,020	4.1x	$1,506	22.0%	$1,300	+3.1%	Stretched
76	Regina	$359,260	4.0x	$1,596	21.3%	$1,350	+2.9%	Affordable

* Payment column is an estimate under stated assumptions (80% loan-to-value, 25-year amortization, current market rate). It excludes property tax, maintenance, insurance, and utilities.

The 10 least affordable markets

City	Price	PTI	Payment/mo	Pay-to-income	YoY
Vancouver	$1,154,000	12.3x	$5,126	65.8%	-3.8%
Victoria	$915,200	10.6x	$4,065	56.7%	-1.2%
Abbotsford	$850,000	10.0x	$3,776	53.3%	+1.2%
Chilliwack	$850,000	10.0x	$3,776	53.3%	+1.2%
Surrey	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	+1.2%
Burnaby	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	+1.2%
Richmond	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	+1.2%
Coquitlam	$1,105,000	10.0x	$4,909	53.3%	+1.2%
Kamloops	$637,500	10.0x	$2,832	53.3%	+1.2%
Prince George	$637,500	10.0x	$2,832	53.3%	+1.2%

The top of this table is B.C. top to bottom. Vancouver's 12.3x price-to-income ratio translates to roughly $5,126 per month - 66% of median household income - for the average home. That is not a typo. Even with 20% down (roughly $230,800 in cash), the median Vancouver household would need to spend nearly two-thirds of its pre-tax income on the mortgage alone. Victoria, Abbotsford, and the Fraser Valley commuter cities follow the same pattern: incomes that look fine on paper against prices that belong to a different economy.

Toronto deserves its own paragraph, because Toronto is the story of 2026. Prices are down 8.2% year-over-year - the steepest decline of any major market - yet affordability has barely improved. Why? Because the price drop was overwhelmed by rates and by the income side of the equation. At 9.3x income and 50% payment-to-income, the average Toronto home still requires the median household to be either much wealthier or much more leveraged than the bank will allow. The correction is real and it matters - a buyer who waited out the last year saved roughly $79,409 on the average price - but "less absurd" is not the same as "affordable." The rent-vs-buy math for Toronto shows why many households are rationally choosing to rent while prices find their floor.

Hamilton mirrors Toronto with a one-city lag: down 6.5% YoY, still at 8.5x income. The entire commuter arc - Kitchener-Waterloo (40% payment-to-income), Hamilton, the GTA suburbs - remains in the Severe tier despite falling prices. And Kelowna shows that this is not just an Ontario story: 9.8x income, 52% of income to payments, in a city whose economy does not produce Vancouver- or Toronto-level wages.

The 10 most affordable markets

City	Price	PTI	Payment/mo	Pay-to-income	YoY
Regina	$359,260	4.0x	$1,596	21.3%	+2.9%
St. John's	$339,020	4.1x	$1,506	22.0%	+3.1%
Saskatoon	$409,860	4.5x	$1,821	23.7%	+2.5%
Winnipeg	$379,500	4.5x	$1,686	23.8%	+2.7%
Red Deer	$425,000	4.6x	$1,888	24.6%	+3.5%
Yellowknife	$500,940	4.6x	$2,225	24.7%	+2.1%
Edmonton	$488,200	4.6x	$2,169	24.8%	+4.5%
Lethbridge	$418,200	4.7x	$1,858	24.9%	+4.1%
Saint John	$318,780	4.7x	$1,416	25.0%	+6.8%
Trois-Rivières	$352,400	4.9x	$1,565	26.4%	+5.3%

Flip the table and Canada looks like a different country. Regina (4.0x, 21% payment-to-income) is the only market in the country at or under the 4x benchmark. St. John's, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Red Deer all let the median household service the average home on roughly a quarter of income - comfortably inside normal lending screens.

But read the YoY column before booking the moving truck. These markets are rising: Saint John is up 6.8% YoY, Sherbrooke 5.8%, Trois-Rivieres 5.3%. The affordability gap between regions is the engine of interprovincial migration, and that migration is itself pushing prices up in the destination markets. Calgary is the cleanest example: up 4.8% YoY to $685,000, now sitting in the Strained tier at 6.3x. Calgary was the escape valve; it is becoming the thing people were escaping.

The Prairie story has a nuance worth stating. Edmonton (4.6x, 25% payment-to-income, up 4.5% YoY) remains genuinely affordable by national standards, and Winnipeg may be the most underrated housing market in the country on pure math. The catch - there is always a catch - is economic: these cities offer affordability because their wage structures and job markets differ from Toronto's and Vancouver's. Moving for a house is rational only if the income comes with you.

The movers: where prices are falling - and where they aren't

Biggest year-over-year declines

City	YoY price change	Price	Payment-to-income	Tier
Toronto	-8.2%	$968,400	49.6%	Severe
Hamilton	-6.5%	$792,300	45.2%	Severe
Vancouver	-3.8%	$1,154,000	65.8%	Severe
Kitchener-Waterloo	-2.1%	$732,400	40.0%	Strained
Kelowna	-1.5%	$795,400	52.3%	Severe
London	-1.5%	$612,500	39.1%	Strained

Ontario's correction is the dominant story in the decline column. Toronto's -8.2% drop and Hamilton's -6.5% drop represent the unwinding of the pandemic-era premium in the country's most leveraged markets. Kitchener-Waterloo (-2.1%) and Kelowna (-1.5%) show the same pattern in different provinces: markets that ran hardest on cheap money are giving back the most. Vancouver's -3.8% is the mildest of the big-city declines - a reminder that B.C.'s supply constraints put a floor under prices even in a correction.

Biggest year-over-year gains

City	YoY price change	Price	Payment-to-income	Tier
Saint John	+6.8%	$318,780	25.0%	Stretched
Sherbrooke	+5.8%	$415,000	29.9%	Stretched
Trois-Rivières	+5.3%	$352,400	26.4%	Stretched
Quebec City	+5.2%	$425,200	29.1%	Stretched
Calgary	+4.8%	$685,000	33.8%	Strained
Edmonton	+4.5%	$488,200	24.8%	Stretched

The gains column is the mirror image: smaller, cheaper markets catching a bid as buyers migrate and investors hunt for cash flow. Saint John's +6.8% leads the country. Quebec's regional cities - Sherbrooke (+5.8%), Trois-Rivieres (+5.3%), Quebec City (+5.2%) - are all rising from affordable bases, which is exactly how affordability erodes in slow motion: +5-6% a year on a $415,000 base compounds into a different market within a few years.

Net assessment: the correction is regional, not national. 10 markets are down; 66 are up. If you own in Toronto, the market is moving in your buyer's favor. If you own in Saint John or Sherbrooke, it is moving the other way.

Why payment-to-income matters more than price-to-income right now

Price-to-income is the measure everyone quotes, but in a 4.49% rate environment it understates the pain. Consider what the two measures say about the same city:

• Toronto: 9.3x sounds bad. 50% of income to mortgage payments sounds impossible - because for the median household, it is. No lender will approve it.
• Calgary: 6.3x sounds manageable. 34% is within lending screens but leaves little room for the renewal shock when today's rates reset higher.
• Regina: 4.0x and 21% agree - this market is actually affordable on both measures.

The payment measure also explains a paradox of 2026: prices fell 8.2% in Toronto, yet affordability barely budged. When rates are high, price cuts have to be enormous to move the monthly payment. A 10% price cut at 4.49% saves far less per month than the same cut at 2%. This is why the Bank of Canada's September hold at 2.25% matters so much for housing: with no rate relief coming, the entire burden of restoring affordability falls on prices - and prices in supply-constrained markets do not fall willingly.

There is a useful rule of thumb buried in this table. Any market where payment-to-income exceeds 40% is one where the median household is locked out regardless of prices, because the math fails at the lender's desk, not at the negotiating table. By that standard, 32 of 76 markets are closed to median earners today.

What it means for you

If you are buying in a Severe-tier market (Vancouver, Toronto, Hamilton, the commuter belt): the data says wait, negotiate hard, or buy below the average. Price declines of 8.2%–6.5% in the GTA mean sellers are adjusting - but at 50% payment-to-income for the average home, you should be shopping well below average, with a stress-tested budget. Run your own numbers on the mortgage payment calculator and the affordability calculator before falling in love with a listing.

If you are buying in a Stretched-tier market (Prairies, Atlantic Canada, Quebec regions): the math works, but the trend is against you. These markets are rising 6.8%–5.8% a year. Waiting costs you here in a way it does not in Toronto. The trade is real: buy sooner in a rising affordable market, or buy later in a falling expensive one.

If you are renting in an expensive market: renting is not "throwing money away" when the ownership premium is this large. In Vancouver, the estimated mortgage payment ($5,126) runs roughly $2,146 per month above the average rent ($2,980) - and that is before property tax and maintenance. Our Canada rent-vs-buy hub and the Toronto rent-vs-buy math walk through when renting wins.

If you are renewing a mortgage this fall: your payment was set by prices and rates from years ago, but your renewal is priced at today's rates. The mortgage renewal cliff guide and the renewal survival scripts cover how to shop your renewal instead of signing the first offer.

If you are considering a move: the interprovincial arbitrage is the single biggest lever available to a Canadian household in 2026. The gap between Vancouver (66% payment-to-income) and Winnipeg (24%) is not a rounding error - it is the difference between a paycheque that goes to the bank and one that goes to your life. Just make sure the income moves with you, and compare cities properly with the city comparison calculator.

Limitations, sources, and a disclaimer

This meter is built from live market data - CREA-fed national statistics and Bank of Canada mortgage rate series, refreshed September 30, 2026 - run through standard, fully disclosed formulas. It is not a forecast, and it is not financial advice. Average prices blend all housing types and may not reflect the segment you would actually buy. Median incomes are market-level estimates. Mortgage payments are estimates under stated assumptions (20% down, 25-year amortization, current market rate) and exclude property tax, maintenance, insurance, and utilities. Smaller B.C. interior markets are estimated from regional board data. Read our full disclaimer before acting on any of this.

What the meter does give you is a consistent, month-comparable scoreboard: the same math, the same markets, refreshed monthly. Bookmark it. Affordability in Canada is not one story - it is 76 of them.

Frequently asked questions

What is the most affordable housing market in Canada in September 2026?

Regina, Saskatchewan. At $359,260 average price against a $90,000 median income (4.0x), with an estimated mortgage payment of $1,596 consuming 21% of income, it is the only market in the country at or under the 4x benchmark. St. John's (4.1x) and Winnipeg (4.5x) round out the top three.

What is the least affordable housing market in Canada in September 2026?

Vancouver, by a wide margin: 12.3x price-to-income and an estimated $5,126 monthly payment consuming 66% of median household income. Victoria (10.6x) and Toronto (9.3x) follow.

Are Canadian house prices falling in 2026?

In some markets, yes - 10 of the 76 markets we track show year-over-year declines, led by Toronto (-8.2%) and Hamilton (-6.5%). But 66 markets are still rising, including Calgary (+4.8%) and most of Atlantic Canada and regional Quebec. The correction is regional, concentrated in the markets that ran hardest on cheap money.

How is the affordability meter calculated?

Price-to-income is average home price divided by median household income. The mortgage payment estimate uses 20% down, a 25-year amortization, and the current market mortgage rate (near 4.49% nationally) in the standard amortization formula. Payment-to-income is that payment divided by monthly household income. All inputs are live September 30, 2026 data; the formulas and assumptions are stated in full in the methodology section above.

What price-to-income ratio is considered affordable?

Historically, 4x income or less is the affordable benchmark in Canada - the long-run norm sits between 3x and 4x. Our tiers label 4x and under "Affordable," 4–6x "Stretched," 6–8x "Strained," and over 8x "Severe." In September 2026, only 1 of 76 tracked markets sits at or under 4x.

How much income do you need to buy the average home in Toronto?

Working from this meter's own figures: the average Toronto home is $968,400 (9.3x median income), and servicing it would consume roughly 50% of median household income. Since lenders cap gross debt service around 32% for a new borrower, the median household would need roughly 55% more income than it actually earns to pass the lending screen - or, equivalently, a price far below the average. That is why Toronto's 8.2% price decline has barely moved affordability: the gap between incomes and prices is too large for a single year's correction to close at current rates.

Which Canadian housing markets are getting more expensive in 2026?

The 66 rising markets are led by smaller, cheaper cities catching a bid: Saint John (+6.8% YoY, $318,780), Sherbrooke (+5.8%, $415,000), Trois-Rivieres (+5.3%, $352,400), Quebec City (+5.2%, $425,200), Calgary (+4.8%, $685,000), and Edmonton (+4.5%, $488,200). Even the biggest gainers remain in the Stretched or Strained tiers - these are markets where affordability is eroding in slow motion rather than markets that were ever cheap by national standards. If you are considering a move for affordability, compare the full payment-to-income column, not just the sticker price: Saint John's 25% is still half of Toronto's 50%.

Is the 4x price-to-income benchmark realistic anymore?

As a description of the market, no: only Regina (4.0x) meets it, and 29 of 76 markets are over 8x. As a target for your own finances, it remains useful. Markets at 4–5x income - Winnipeg (4.5x, 23.8% payment-to-income), Saskatoon (4.5x, 23.7%), Edmonton (4.6x, 24.8%) - still let the median household buy inside normal lending screens. The realistic question in 2026 is not "can I hit 4x where I live" but "which markets are within striking distance of it, and can my income come with me."