Updated July 10, 2026

Montreal Housing Market Forecast 2026

Montreal's 2026 housing forecast is a gradual slowdown with sticky prices. Sales have softened and listings have risen, but the affordability picture is still not easy because prices remain high relative to local income and rents are not loose.

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Forecast read

Balanced market, high stress

The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers reported that Montreal CMA sales slowed in June 2026 while active listings rose, giving buyers more choice than a year earlier.

7.3x

price/income

+1.2%

YoY price

28.1%

rent/income

1.5%

vacancy

Average price

$595,400

7.3 times local median household income.

Estimated payment

$2,562

20% down, 25-year amortization, using BubbleWatch's current mortgage-rate assumption.

Ownership premium

$642

Estimated mortgage payment versus $1,920 average monthly rent, before ownership extras.

Income screen

$102,480

Rough gross income if mortgage payment is capped near 30% of income.

Short answer

What is really happening in Montreal?

The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers reported that Montreal CMA sales slowed in June 2026 while active listings rose, giving buyers more choice than a year earlier.

Montreal likely keeps cooling gradually in 2026, with more buyer choice but no broad affordability reset.

The risk is reading Montreal as cheap because it is cheaper than Toronto. The local income test still matters, and a slower sales market can leave overpaid listings exposed.

Decision reads

Buyer, seller, and renter forecast

For buyers

Buyers should look for leverage where listings have accumulated, but should not assume every property type is equally soft. Plexes, condos, and single-family homes can move on different supply-demand clocks.

For sellers

Sellers should expect more comparison shopping. Pricing still has support in desirable neighbourhoods, but buyers have enough supply signals to challenge optimistic asks.

For renters

Renters face a less extreme ownership gap than Vancouver or Toronto, but Montreal's rent-to-income pressure still makes the buy decision sensitive to taxes, condo fees, and maintenance.

Supply signal

Rising listings are the central watch item. A gradual slowdown is manageable; a sustained inventory build would shift negotiation power more clearly toward buyers.

Scenarios

Three paths for late 2026

Forecasts are scenario screens, not promises. The useful question is not whether one headline is right; it is which trigger would change the decision for a buyer, seller, owner, or renter.

Scenario	Outlook	Trigger
Base case	Gradual cooling with prices supported in desirable pockets.	Listings rise, but not enough to force broad discounting.
Bull case	Activity stabilizes and price growth stays modest.	Borrowing costs ease and buyers absorb new supply.
Bear case	More visible price concessions in slower segments.	Sales continue declining while active listings build.

Upside case

The upside case is stable employment and lower rates supporting prices even as listings rise.

Downside case

The downside case is a sharper slowdown if sales keep falling while inventory grows through late 2026.

Watch list

Signals to check before making an offer

These are the local details that can make the published forecast too optimistic or too pessimistic for a specific property.

Active listings across the Montreal CMA

Condo versus single-family absorption

Plex pricing and investor financing costs

Rent growth versus household income

Compare nearby choices

Montreal versus peer markets

Compare all cities

City	Avg price	Price/income	Payment	Rent/income	YoY
Montreal Quebec	$595,400	7.3x	$2,562	28.1%	+1.2%
Ottawa Ontario	$678,400	6.8x	$2,919	27.5%	-1.2%
Quebec City Quebec	$425,200	5.5x	$1,829	23.4%	+5.2%
Toronto Ontario	$968,400	9.3x	$4,167	32.9%	-8.2%

Sources

What this forecast is based on

Source	Date	Market signal
Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers	June 2026	The association reported 4,012 Montreal CMA residential sales in June 2026, down 8% from a year earlier, with active listings higher year over year.
QPAREB May market release	May 2026	The May release showed Montreal CMA sales down 7% year over year while activity remained near the ten-year average.

Method

BubbleWatch combines local board signals with city-level affordability math: average home price, median income, average rent, rent-to-income ratio, vacancy, estimated mortgage payment, and year-over-year price momentum. The result is a decision screen for households, not investment advice or a guaranteed price target.

Canada housing dashboard Rent vs buy guide

FAQ

Montreal housing forecast questions

What is the Montreal housing market forecast for 2026?

Are Montreal home prices going up or down?

BubbleWatch's current city data shows Montreal prices up 1.2% year over year. The forecast depends on whether inventory, mortgage rates, and buyer incomes improve enough to support today's payment levels.

Is Montreal affordable for buyers?

Montreal has an average price of $595,400, equal to 7.3 times local median income. The estimated 20%-down mortgage payment is $2,562 per month, before property tax, insurance, utilities, repairs, and condo fees where applicable.

Should renters buy in Montreal in 2026?

Renters should compare the full five-year cost, not just rent versus mortgage. Average rent is $1,920 per month and the estimated ownership payment is $2,562 before non-mortgage ownership costs, so timing depends on down payment, job security, and holding period.

What would change the Montreal forecast fastest?

The fastest swing factors are mortgage rates, inventory, employment confidence, and renewal pressure. In Montreal, the key local watch items are active listings across the montreal cma and condo versus single-family absorption.

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