Methodology
Where the numbers come from, how the ratios are built, and what they cannot tell you.
1. Primary sources
BubbleWatch analysis starts from published Canadian housing and rate data. Benchmark and average home prices, sales, and listings figures come from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and its national statistics releases. Mortgage rate series come from the Bank of Canada, including its published chartered bank rate data. Affordability context uses Statistics Canada and Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) material, along with provincial and municipal sources where a city story needs local detail.
When a page cites a figure, the figure traces back to one of those publishers. We do not scrape asking prices from listing portals and present them as market prices, and we do not publish invented estimates dressed up as statistics.
2. How the affordability numbers are built
City affordability pages compare a published home price for the city with a median household income figure for the same city. The ratio of price to income is the headline multiple: a multiple of seven means the typical home costs about seven years of the median household income, before tax and before borrowing costs. Monthly payment figures apply the tracked mortgage rate to that price with a standard amortization, so readers can compare the carrying cost of buying with the average rent shown beside it.
These are comparison tools, not underwriting. Your lender qualifies you on your actual income, debts, credit history, and the stress test, and your real payment depends on your down payment, rate, and term. The affordability calculator and the housing dashboard show their inputs so you can rerun the math with your own numbers.
3. Refresh discipline
Market data files are refreshed when the underlying publishers release new data, and the site footer shows the current build and last-updated date. Forecasts, including the city forecast pages, are scenario analysis built on those published series; they are labelled as analysis, they carry the assumptions used, and they are not predictions of what any individual home will sell for.
If a source revises a series, the revised figure replaces the old one. Where a number on this site looks wrong, the contact page is the fastest way to flag it, and corrections are made in the data and on the page, not in a footnote.
4. What the numbers cannot do
A national benchmark price hides regional spread, and a city average hides neighbourhoods. Ratios built on medians describe the middle of a market, not the home you are standing in. Treat BubbleWatch numbers as a map of pressure and direction, then do the property-level work with local comparables and professional advice. Our disclaimer sets out the limits in full, and About BubbleWatch explains who publishes the site.