BubbleWatch Reports
Long-form research from the BubbleWatch desk on the Canadian housing market. Each report takes one question (a tax change, an affordability gap, a renewal risk) and works it through with the data available at the time, with sources cited inside the report itself.
The report collection
City affordability data
Canada Housing Affordability City Comparison 2026A side-by-side affordability comparison of Canadian cities using price, rent, and income data, with carrying cost calculations and the income gap each city asks a buyer to close.
Published August 15, 2026
Mortgage renewal risk
Toronto Condo Refinance Risk 2026Refinance and appraisal risk facing Toronto condo owners renewing into the 2026 market: appraisal gaps, loan-to-value pressure, and the steps borrowers can take before renewal day.
Published July 3, 2026
Tax policy
Capital Gains Inclusion Rate Impact 2026How the capital gains inclusion rate change affects Canadian property investors and sellers, including the 66.67 percent inclusion rate on gains above $250,000 for individuals.
2026 Q2 report
Affordability analysis
The 2026 Metro Affordability DeficitWhich Canadian metros carry the widest gap between local incomes and local home prices, and where suburban housing in the GTA and GVA has moved furthest from local earnings.
Published April 19, 2026
How these reports are built
Reports are point-in-time analysis, not live dashboards. The figures inside each report are dated and drawn from sources such as Statistics Canada, CMHC, the Bank of Canada, and CREA, and the report text names the source next to the number wherever the number matters. When a newer edition supersedes an older one, the older report stays published with its original date so the record of what was knowable at the time is not rewritten.
Treat a report as the deep answer to one question and the trackers below as the current state of play. If a figure in a report and a figure on a tracker page differ, the tracker is the fresher one and the report is the dated one.
Keep tracking between reports
- Canada Housing Market Dashboard
The live tracker view of benchmark prices, sales, and listings across the markets we follow.
- Canada Affordability Index
76 cities ranked by income against local prices, rent, and mortgage payments.
- Canada Housing Market Pulse
A shorter read on where the market is moving between report editions.
- Insights and Analysis
Shorter BubbleWatch articles on affordability, mortgage pressure, and policy, published between reports.