Alberta Housing Market Forecast 2026 and 2027

CREA's Alberta outlook in numbers

Alberta spent 2023 and 2024 as one of the country's strongest large housing markets, with prices far below those in Ontario and B.C. and a benchmark that kept rising after the 2022 rate hikes. CREA's October 2026 forecast says that phase is over, but not in the way a crash would look. The provincial average sale price is still forecast to rise: from $512,993 in 2025 to $529,033 in 2026, a 3.1% gain, and to $537,857 in 2027, a 1.7% gain.

The weakness is in activity. CREA expects 70,045 Alberta MLS sales in 2026, down 9.0% from 76,976 in 2025, which had already fallen 7.8%. That is the largest provincial sales decline in the October forecast. A 4.1% recovery to 72,936 is expected in 2027. CREA attributed the national downgrade to higher fixed mortgage rates since early September and uncertainty about further Bank of Canada increases; the Bank raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28.

Falling sales with rising average prices usually means the mix of homes sold is shifting toward larger, more expensive properties, or that sellers are holding firm while buyers thin out. In Alberta both are happening. Detached sales have held up better than apartment sales, which lifts the average, while benchmark prices for comparable homes are flat. That is why it is worth reading the forecast alongside the benchmark rather than on its own.

The Alberta benchmark has stalled since early 2025

The MLS Home Price Index composite for Alberta peaked at $527,600 in March 2025. By September 2026 it was $508,500, down 3.6% from that peak and 0.4% from $510,700 a year earlier. After a decade of slow movement, then a sharp run-up, Alberta's benchmark has gone sideways for eighteen months.

The ten-year record explains why Alberta looked like such a bargain to movers. The composite was $390,900 in September 2016 and $385,700 in September 2019, three years later. It barely moved through the 2015 to 2020 oil slump. The pandemic and migration wave then lifted it to $422,500 in September 2021, $485,600 in September 2023 and $517,500 in September 2024. That is a 34% gain from 2019 to 2024, compared with 38% in Ontario over the same five years. But because Ontario then fell 26.7% from its peak while Alberta fell only 3.6%, Alberta is now 32% above its 2019 level while Ontario is 27% above.

By home type, the provincial single-family benchmark was $606,500, down 0.4% over the year. Townhouses fell 3.9% to $379,400, and apartments fell 6.3% to $264,900, 12.4% below their August 2024 peak of $302,400. The decline is concentrated in the segment where new supply has been arriving fastest.

Calgary versus Edmonton in 2026

Calgary and Edmonton together dominate Alberta's market, and they are in different positions. Calgary's composite benchmark was $569,200 in September 2026, up 0.2% from $568,000 a year earlier and 3.5% below its June 2024 peak of $589,900. Edmonton's was $416,700, down 0.1% from $417,100 and 3.8% below its June 2025 peak of $433,000. Both are flat over the year. The gap between them is about $152,500, which keeps Edmonton the lower-cost option for buyers choosing between the two.

The two cities diverge more by home type. In Calgary the single-family benchmark was $679,600, down 0.4%. The townhouse benchmark was $443,400, down 2.6%, and the apartment benchmark was $304,900, down 6.0% and 12.5% below its August 2024 peak. In Edmonton the single-family benchmark was $501,900, up 0.3%. Townhouses fell 3.4% to $269,500 and apartments fell 0.9% to $197,800.

So the apartment slide is a Calgary story more than an Edmonton one. Calgary's construction boom of 2023 and 2024 delivered large numbers of new apartments and rentals, and they are now competing with investor-owned resale condos for the same tenants and buyers. Edmonton's condo market never rose as far, so it has less to give back. Our Calgary condo market page goes through the apartment numbers in detail, and the Calgary vs Edmonton comparison covers the broader choice.

The Calgary board's own release for September 2026 reported 1,650 sales, down about 4% from a year earlier, and months of supply just under four. That is close to balanced territory. Edmonton and Calgary each have a dedicated forecast page: Calgary housing market forecast and Edmonton housing market forecast.

Rents and vacancy across Alberta cities

Alberta's big-city rental markets have loosened, and that is now feeding into the ownership market. CMHC's October 2025 Rental Market Survey put the City of Calgary's purpose-built vacancy rate at 5.0%, with an average two-bedroom rent of $1,912. Edmonton's vacancy rate was 3.8% and its average two-bedroom rent $1,577. Airdrie was at 4.7% and Lethbridge at 4.3%.

Five percent vacancy is high for a large Canadian city. It means tenants have options and landlords compete on price and incentives. For an investor who bought a Calgary condo in 2024 expecting rents to keep climbing, it means the income side of the plan is not keeping up with costs. For a would-be buyer, it means renting is a reasonable way to wait. Our rent vs buy in Calgary analysis runs the numbers.

Lower-vacancy markets are the smaller cities. Leduc's vacancy was 1.7% and Grande Prairie's 2.3%, both well below the larger cities. Those markets have less new purpose-built supply, which supports both rents and prices.

Prices for Red Deer and Lethbridge are carried over from our earlier tracker data because no current benchmark could be retrieved; each city page flags this in its sources table. Leduc uses the Greater Edmonton Area benchmark because no Leduc-only figure is published. Rents and vacancy are CMHC October 2025 survey figures.

Why Alberta still looks affordable next to the rest of Canada

Even after its run-up, Alberta's big cities have some of the lowest price-to-income ratios in urban Canada. Calgary's benchmark is about 4.9 times the area's 2023 median family income of $116,530. Edmonton's is about 3.7 times its $114,130 median. For comparison, Toronto's is about 8.9 and Vancouver's about 10.8. Alberta also has no land transfer tax, only modest title and mortgage registration fees, which lowers upfront costs; see our Alberta closing costs guide.

That affordability gap is what drew record migration from other provinces in 2022 and 2023. It remains a support for prices. If newcomers keep choosing Alberta for its prices, that gap remains a support for demand. The risk is that the gap narrows from the other side: if Ontario and B.C. prices keep falling while Alberta's hold, fewer people will have a reason to move.

Energy prices matter more in Alberta than anywhere else. CREA's forecast noted that oil prices rose from early September, which is a mixed signal: it pushed up inflation and mortgage rates nationally, but it supports Alberta incomes, government revenue and employment. That makes oil prices a second rate-like variable for Alberta housing.

Why CREA's Alberta average rises while the benchmark stays flat

Readers who compare CREA's forecast with the benchmark will notice a contradiction. CREA expects the Alberta average sale price to rise 3.1% in 2026. The MLS HPI composite for Alberta was down 0.4% in the year to September 2026. Both can be right, because they measure different things.

The average sale price is the total value of homes sold divided by the number sold. If buyers shift toward detached homes and away from apartments, the average rises even if no individual home gains value. That is happening in Alberta. Detached prices in Calgary and Edmonton are close to flat, while apartment sales in Calgary fell about 14% in September 2026. Fewer cheap units in the mix lifts the average.

The benchmark prices a typical home with fixed characteristics, so it strips out most of that mix effect. When the two measures diverge, the benchmark is the better guide to what has happened to the value of a home you already own or want to buy. The average is the better guide to the dollar volume flowing through the market, which is what CREA's forecast is designed to track.

For Alberta in 2026 the practical reading is this: the value of a typical home is roughly unchanged from a year ago, apartments are the exception and are falling, and the average is being pulled up by the type of homes that are still selling. If apartment sales recover in 2027, the average could rise more slowly than CREA expects even if benchmark values firm. Our MLS HPI versus average price explainer covers this in more detail.

What the forecast means for Alberta buyers, sellers and landlords

For a first-time buyer, Alberta in late 2026 offers something rare in Canada: prices close to local incomes and a market that is not running away. Sales are down 9% this year and months of supply in Calgary are near four, so buyers can take time, include conditions and compare. Edmonton's composite benchmark of $416,700 is about 3.7 times the area's median family income, the lowest ratio among Canada's six largest metro areas on our tracker.

For sellers, especially of detached homes, the market is balanced rather than weak. Detached benchmarks are close to last year's level, so a well-priced home still sells. Sellers of apartments face a harder market: more competing listings, longer selling times and a falling benchmark. Pricing to the current month's comparable sales rather than to 2024 levels matters most in that segment.

For landlords, the combination of 5% vacancy in Calgary and a falling apartment benchmark is the weakest setup in years. Rents are unlikely to rise quickly while new purpose-built buildings lease up. Landlords with fixed-rate mortgages renewing in 2026 and 2027 will face higher payments without matching rent growth. Edmonton, with lower vacancy and a steadier apartment benchmark, is in a better position.

Alberta's mortgage arrears are falling while others rise

Alberta is one of only two provinces where the mortgage arrears rate is lower than in 2022. The Canadian Bankers Association reported 0.28% of Alberta bank mortgages three or more months behind in August 2026, covering 1,591 out of 565,929. In August 2022 the rate was 0.37%, and in August 2019, after the oil slump, it was 0.50%. Saskatchewan is the other province with a lower rate than in 2022.

This is the reverse of the trend in Ontario and B.C. It reflects rising prices through 2024, which gave borrowers equity to sell or refinance if they ran into trouble. Alberta's arrears rate is now slightly below the national 0.30%, a reversal of the long-standing pattern where Alberta was well above average.

Renewal equity is also strong. A buyer who paid the Alberta benchmark in September 2021, put 10% down and took a five-year fixed at the 2021 average posted rate of 4.79% would owe about 66% of today's benchmark value at renewal, because prices rose about 20% in the meantime. That gives most Alberta borrowers room to switch lenders or refinance. Compare provinces on the mortgage renewal risk page.

Alberta's sales slump in context

The 9.0% sales decline CREA expects for Alberta in 2026 comes on top of a 7.8% decline in 2025. Working back from CREA's figures, Alberta MLS sales were about 83,500 in 2024. The 2026 forecast of 70,045 would be about 16% below that level, the largest two-year drop in activity of any province in the forecast table.

Monthly board data show the slowdown deepening in the fall. CREB reported 1,650 Calgary sales in September 2026, about 4% fewer than a year earlier, then 1,592 in October, down 15.3%. The October figure came after fixed mortgage rates rose in September and before the Bank of Canada's October 28 hike, so it reflects the first part of the rate move CREA described.

Falling sales do not always mean falling prices. In Alberta they line up with buyers waiting to see where rates settle and with weaker demand in the apartment segment, where CREB has reported the sharpest drop in sales. Sellers of detached homes have mostly held their prices, which is why the benchmark is flat rather than falling. If sales keep dropping into 2027 while listings rise, that would change, but CREA's forecast expects a 4.1% recovery in sales next year instead.

For context, Alberta's boom was large. The province's composite benchmark rose about 37% from September 2019 to its March 2025 peak. A cooling after a run like that is a pause more than a sign of distress, as long as arrears stay low, and they are falling.

What could move Alberta prices from here

Each of these is measurable in public data, and we update the city pages as new figures come out.

• Apartment supply. Calgary's apartment benchmark is falling about 6% a year. If new completions keep coming while vacancy stays near 5%, apartments will keep dragging on the composite. If completions slow, the segment could stabilize in 2027.
• Migration. Alberta's growth depended on people arriving from other provinces and abroad. CREA's 2027 sales rebound depends on more certainty for borrowers about rates. A narrower affordability gap with Ontario, as Ontario prices fall, would weaken that pull.
• Oil and jobs. Higher oil prices support Alberta incomes. A sharp fall in oil, as in 2015, has historically flattened Alberta prices for years.
• Rates. Alberta borrowers carry smaller mortgages than those in Ontario or B.C., so each rate hike costs less in dollars. That makes Alberta less sensitive to Bank of Canada moves than the coastal provinces.

Alberta's 2026 market is a pause after a boom. Single-family prices are holding, apartments are adjusting to a wave of new supply, sales are down sharply and rents are easing. CREA expects modest price gains to resume in 2027. For buyers, Alberta still offers the best combination of income and price among Canada's large cities, especially in Edmonton. For condo investors, the numbers are much harder than they were two years ago. See the national picture in the Canada housing market forecast.