Vancouver Condo Market 2026

What the September 2026 numbers show

Greater Vancouver REALTORS' September 2026 release is the clearest recent snapshot of the region's condo market. Apartment sales were 777, down 18.6% from 954 a year earlier. The apartment benchmark price was $682,500, down 6.2% year over year and 0.5% from August. Across all home types, sales were 1,717, down 8.4%, and 25% below the ten-year September average of 2,289.

The contrast with detached homes is striking. Detached sales rose 4.2% to 575, even though the detached benchmark fell 7.3% to $1,784,700. Townhouse sales were up 0.6% to 358. Apartments were the only major home type where sales fell sharply, and since apartments usually account for about half of all sales in the region, their slump pulled the total down. The board's economist described the weakness as contained to the apartment segment and said investor demand was waiting for better conditions.

The sales-to-active-listings ratio for apartments was 11.4%. The board treats a ratio below 12% sustained over several months as a sign of downward pressure on prices and a ratio above 20% as a sign of upward pressure. Apartments were below 12% in September, along with detached homes at 9.7%, while townhouses sat just above at 12.2%.

Vancouver condo prices over ten years

Vancouver's condo market has had two peaks in the past decade, and it is now below the second one. The CREA MLS HPI apartment benchmark for Greater Vancouver was $454,300 in March 2016. It rose 46% to $661,600 by March 2018, then fell to $599,300 by September 2019.

The pandemic brought a second run. The benchmark reached $767,800 in March 2022, eased to $724,500 by September 2022 as rates rose, then climbed again to a new high of $778,200 in April 2024. Unlike most Canadian markets, Vancouver condos set their record after the 2022 rate hikes, not before. Since then the benchmark has fallen 12.3% to $682,500.

Today's price is roughly where it was in September 2021, five years ago. A buyer who purchased then has made no price gain, has paid five years of carrying costs, and faces a renewal at higher rates. A buyer who purchased in 2024 near the peak is down about 12% on the benchmark before transaction costs.

Fraser Valley and suburban condos are falling faster

The Fraser Valley board area, which includes Surrey, Langley and Abbotsford, has seen a deeper condo decline than Vancouver. Its apartment benchmark was $461,800 in September 2026, down 9.3% from $509,100 a year earlier and 20.2% below its April 2022 peak of $579,000. In dollars the Fraser Valley apartment benchmark has lost $117,200 from its peak, against $95,700 for Greater Vancouver.

Across British Columbia as a whole the apartment benchmark was $588,300, down 5.5% in a year and 12.2% below its May 2022 peak of $670,400. Victoria was the exception: its apartment benchmark was $542,800 in September 2026, slightly above the $541,300 of a year earlier. Victoria's condo market has simply not followed the Lower Mainland down this year, which makes it the steadiest of B.C.'s large apartment markets on the benchmark.

This pattern, with outer suburbs and investor-heavy markets falling hardest, is the same one seen in the Toronto area, where 905 condos have fallen faster than those in the city. It suggests the condo correction is driven more by investor economics than by any broad loss of demand for housing. See the Toronto condo market page for the comparison.

Why investor math no longer works for most Vancouver condos

The simplest way to see the investor problem is to compare the cost of carrying a typical condo with the rent it can earn. Take the Greater Vancouver apartment benchmark of $682,500 with 20% down, a $546,000 mortgage over 25 years. At a 4.5% mortgage rate the monthly payment is about $3,022. At 5.5% it is about $3,333. Those rates are illustrative; the Bank of Canada's weekly average posted five-year rate was 6.19% on October 21, 2026, and most borrowers pay less than posted.

Against that, CMHC's October 2025 survey put the average two-bedroom purpose-built rent in the City of Vancouver at $2,638. A one-bedroom condo, which is closer to the benchmark unit, typically rents for less. Before strata fees, property tax and insurance, the mortgage payment alone is $400 to $700 a month higher than the average two-bedroom rent. Strata fees, property tax and insurance then widen the gap further.

That gap is what turned Vancouver's investor market off. Buyers who locked in lower rates in 2020 and 2021 had a much smaller gap to cover. At today's rates, the same unit only works if the owner expects price gains, and with the benchmark falling, that bet is less attractive. Investors who bought pre-sale units in 2022 and 2023 and are now completing face the hardest numbers, because their purchase prices were set near the peak and their financing is at today's rates.

The income a Vancouver condo needs

Price is only half of affordability. The other half is whether a household can qualify. Using the Greater Vancouver apartment benchmark of $682,500 and 20% down, the mortgage is $546,000. At an illustrative 5.5% contract rate over 25 years the payment is about $3,333 a month. Federal rules require uninsured borrowers to qualify at the higher of 5.25% or their contract rate plus two points, which here means 7.5%, where the payment would be about $3,994.

If lenders cap housing payments near 32% of gross income, that stress-test payment needs a household income of roughly $150,000, before property tax, strata fees and heating are added. The Vancouver area's 2023 median census family income was $107,720. A typical family therefore cannot qualify for the typical Vancouver condo with 20% down unless it has a larger down payment, a co-borrower or a lower-priced unit.

The Fraser Valley tells a different story. Its apartment benchmark of $461,800 with 20% down means a $369,440 mortgage, about $2,255 a month at 5.5% and $2,703 at the 7.5% qualifying rate. On the same 32% test that needs about $101,000 of income, close to the area's family median. That gap of roughly $50,000 in required income helps explain why the Fraser Valley is a common entry point for Lower Mainland condo buyers, and why its steeper correction matters to so many first-time owners.

Rents, vacancy and new rental supply

Renters are the other side of the condo market. When rents rise, investors can hold on; when rents flatten, investors sell. CMHC's October 2025 data put the City of Vancouver's purpose-built vacancy rate at 2.7%, Burnaby's at 5.9% and Surrey's at 4.3%. Burnaby's rate is one of the highest among Lower Mainland cities.

Average two-bedroom rents were $2,638 in Vancouver, $2,147 in Burnaby, $2,046 in Richmond, $2,148 in Coquitlam and $1,872 in Surrey. Purpose-built survey averages include long-term tenants paying below-market rents, so asking rents for vacant units are higher. Even so, the average is a fair guide to what a condo landlord competes against.

Higher vacancy in Burnaby and Surrey matters for condo owners who rent out units there. When new rental buildings offer incentives to fill units, condo landlords have to cut rents or accept longer vacancies. Both reduce the income side of the investment and add to the pressure to sell.

Reading the market as a buyer, owner or presale holder

For a first-time buyer who plans to live in the unit, the 2026 condo market is the best in years for negotiating. Sales are down, listings are high and the benchmark is falling. That gives room to ask for price reductions, longer closing dates and conditions on financing, inspection and strata documents. The key checks are the strata's depreciation report and contingency reserve fund, upcoming special levies, and any building envelope or elevator work. Our condo special assessment guide explains what to look for.

For an owner who bought between 2021 and 2024, the main risk is at renewal. The apartment benchmark is roughly where it was in September 2021 and 12% below the 2024 peak. An owner who put 10% down in 2024 may have little or no equity on paper. That matters if they want to switch lenders or refinance, because a new lender will value the unit at today's prices. Our mortgage renewal risk by province page shows how equity has changed by region.

For a presale buyer whose building is completing in 2026 or 2027, the risk is an appraisal gap. If the contract price was set in 2022 or 2023 and the unit now appraises for less, the lender will lend on the lower figure and the buyer must cover the difference in cash. Assignment sales, where a presale buyer sells the contract before completion, have become harder because buyers can often get a completed resale unit for less. Our assignment sale guide covers the rules.

Townhouses: the segment between condos and detached homes

Buyers who find Vancouver condos too small and detached homes out of reach usually look at townhouses. In September 2026 the Greater Vancouver townhouse benchmark was $1,016,700, down 4.7% from a year earlier. Townhouse sales were 358, up 0.6%, and the townhouse sales-to-active-listings ratio was 12.2%, the highest of the three main home types and just above the board's 12% line.

That makes townhouses the steadiest segment in the region. They have fallen less than apartments or detached homes over the year, and sales are holding. The gap between the townhouse and apartment benchmarks is $334,200. For a family that needs a third bedroom, that gap is the real price of space in Greater Vancouver.

The comparison matters for condo owners too. A one- or two-bedroom condo owner planning to trade up to a townhouse sells into the weakest segment and buys into the steadiest one. Over the past year, the apartment benchmark fell $45,100 while the townhouse benchmark fell $49,900, so the dollar gap has narrowed slightly. Trading up is a little cheaper than a year ago, though the condo seller still faces slower sales.

A checklist before buying a Vancouver condo in 2026

Falling prices make it easier to buy but also easier to overpay for the wrong building. These are the checks that matter most in the current Vancouver market.

• Recent comparable sales in the same building. In a falling market, last year's sales overstate value. Ask for sales from the past three to six months and for any units that listed and failed to sell.
• The depreciation report and contingency reserve fund. B.C. strata corporations must keep a contingency reserve fund and most must commission depreciation reports. A thin fund with large projects ahead points to special levies.
• Strata minutes for the past two years. Look for discussion of building envelope repairs, insurance increases, elevator replacements or litigation.
• Insurance deductibles. Strata insurance deductibles in B.C. can be large, and owners can be responsible for them after water damage. Check the current deductible and whether your own policy covers it.
• Rental and age restrictions. Bylaws that restrict rentals or ages affect who can buy the unit later and so its resale value.
• Parking, storage and the floor plan. In a buyer's market, units without parking, units with awkward layouts and units facing a lane or a busy road tend to sit longest and sell at the deepest discounts. If the price looks low, check whether one of these features explains it, because the same feature will weigh on the price when you sell.
• Pre-sale assignments in the same building. If many presale buyers are trying to assign their contracts, resale prices in the building may face pressure when those units complete.

None of these checks is new, but in a rising market buyers often skip them to win a bidding war. In a market with more than 16,000 active listings, there is time to do them properly.

Vancouver's condo correction next to other Canadian cities

Vancouver is not alone. In September 2026 the Greater Toronto apartment benchmark was down 6.7% over the year and Calgary's was down 6.0%, close to Vancouver's 6.2% drop. Montreal's was flat. What sets Vancouver apart is the price level. At $682,500 its apartment benchmark is $155,300 higher than Toronto's and more than twice Calgary's $304,900.

Vancouver also stands out in the gap between condos and houses. Its apartment benchmark is only 38% of its single-family benchmark, the lowest share of the four largest condo markets. That means the step from a condo to a detached home is larger in Vancouver than in Toronto, Calgary or Montreal, which keeps many households in condos longer and supports owner-occupier demand for larger units even while investor demand for small units falls.

Outlook for Vancouver condos into 2027

CREA's October 2026 forecast expects British Columbia's average sale price to fall 0.8% in 2026 and rise 0.8% in 2027, with sales rebounding 5.7% next year. That is a provincial average across all home types. For condos, the leading indicators point to a slower recovery than for houses: apartment sales are falling while detached sales are rising, apartment listings are high, and new rental supply is pushing up vacancy.

Three signals would suggest the condo market has turned. The first is apartment sales rising year over year for several months in a row. The second is the apartment sales-to-active-listings ratio moving above 15%. The third is the monthly benchmark change turning positive. None of these had happened by September 2026.

Until then, Vancouver condos are likely to keep drifting lower, with the Fraser Valley and investor-heavy buildings weaker than owner-occupied buildings in central Vancouver. For the wider regional view, see the B.C. housing market forecast and the Vancouver housing market forecast. For the long-run question of whether Vancouver is in a bubble, see Is Vancouver in a housing bubble?.