Mortgage Renewal Risk by Province, 2026

Bank mortgage arrears by province, 2022 against 2026

The Canadian Bankers Association publishes a monthly count of residential mortgages at its member banks that are three or more months in arrears, by province or region. It is the most widely used measure of mortgage stress in Canada. These are bank-held mortgages only; loans from credit unions, private lenders and mortgage investment corporations are not included.

In August 2026 the national arrears rate was 0.30%, covering 14,624 mortgages out of 4,902,779. In August 2022, when the Bank of Canada was in the middle of its rate hikes and most borrowers were still on low rates, it was 0.14%. The rate has more than doubled, but it is still close to where it was before the pandemic: 0.23% in August 2019.

The national number hides very different provincial trends. Ontario's rate rose almost sixfold, from 0.06% to 0.35%. British Columbia's nearly tripled, from 0.10% to 0.27%. Quebec's rose from 0.11% to 0.19%, still the lowest in the country. Manitoba's rose from 0.27% to 0.35% and Atlantic Canada's from 0.24% to 0.31%. Alberta's fell from 0.37% to 0.28%, and Saskatchewan's fell from 0.59% to 0.45%.

The ranking has turned upside down since 2019. Before the pandemic, the provinces with the highest arrears were Saskatchewan (0.85%), Alberta (0.50%) and Atlantic Canada (0.46%). Ontario (0.09%) and B.C. (0.14%) had the lowest. Today Ontario is near the top and holds more than half of all Canadian mortgages in arrears: 7,512 of 14,624. It holds 44% of the mortgages in the data, so its share of arrears is well above its share of borrowers.

How the arrears trend has moved since 2019

Looking at the August reading each year shows when each province turned. Nationally, arrears fell from 0.23% in 2019 to a low of 0.14% in 2022, a period of rising home prices. They then rose steadily: 0.15% in 2023, 0.20% in 2024, 0.24% in 2025 and 0.30% in 2026. The February 2026 reading was 0.28%, so the increase has continued through this year.

Ontario turned first and fastest. Its rate went from 0.06% in 2022 to 0.09% in 2023, 0.16% in 2024, 0.23% in 2025 and 0.35% in 2026. The rise between August 2025 and August 2026 was 0.12 percentage points, the largest single-year increase in the series we reviewed. B.C. followed a similar but slower path, from 0.10% in 2022 to 0.27% in 2026.

Alberta and Saskatchewan moved the other way. Alberta's rate fell from 0.49% in 2021 to 0.28% in 2026, and Saskatchewan's from 0.65% to 0.45%. Rising prices and employment in both provinces gave borrowers more room. Quebec has been stable and low throughout, rising only from 0.11% to 0.19% over four years.

Home equity at renewal for 2021 buyers, by province

Arrears show who is already behind. Equity shows who has room to manage a higher payment by switching lenders, refinancing or selling. A borrower with plenty of equity can usually solve a payment problem; a borrower with little or none often cannot.

To compare provinces, we estimated the loan-to-value ratio at renewal for a buyer who paid the CREA MLS HPI composite benchmark in September 2021 and took a five-year fixed mortgage at the 2021 average posted rate of 4.79%, amortized over 25 years. After five years about 88.2% of the original loan is still owed. We divided that balance by the September 2026 benchmark for the same area. This is a benchmark estimate, not a valuation of any one home, and real borrowers often had lower rates and made extra payments.

The results split the country in two. In Ontario, prices are 11.4% lower than in September 2021, so a 2021 buyer with 10% down owes about 90% of today's benchmark value. In B.C., prices are 1.5% lower and the figure is about 81%. Everywhere else, prices have risen since 2021, by between 17% in Prince Edward Island and 42% in New Brunswick, and loan-to-value at renewal ranges from about 56% to 68%.

Manitoba has no provincial composite in the HPI, so Winnipeg stands in for it. A loan-to-value above 80% matters because most lenders will not take a switch or refinance above that level without mortgage default insurance, which many borrowers no longer qualify for or did not have. An Ontario borrower at 90% may be current on payments but stuck with their existing lender's renewal offer.

The 2022 peak buyers: where negative equity is real

The deepest exposure is among buyers who purchased at the early-2022 peak. Those mortgages renew in 2027. Using the same method with a 2022 purchase at the peak benchmark and the 2022 average posted rate of 5.65%, about 89.4% of the loan is still owed after five years.

On those assumptions, a buyer at the Ontario composite peak of $1,005,100 in March 2022 with 10% down would owe about 110% of today's benchmark. With 20% down it would be about 98%. In Kitchener-Waterloo, where the benchmark is 33.2% below its February 2022 peak, the figures are about 120% and 107%. In Hamilton-Burlington they are about 116% and 103%. In Greater Toronto, about 112% and 100%.

B.C. peak buyers are in a better but still tight position: about 97% with 10% down and 86% with 20% down on the provincial benchmark. In the provinces where prices have kept rising, there is no 2022 peak to speak of; Alberta, Quebec, Saskatchewan and the Atlantic provinces have all set or neared new highs since 2025.

Negative equity on paper does not by itself cause arrears. Most of these borrowers are still making payments, and lenders generally renew existing clients without a new appraisal. The risk shows up when an owner needs to sell, divorce, move for work or switch lenders for a better rate. That is when lack of equity turns a manageable problem into a forced sale. For condo owners, see our Toronto condo refinance risk monitor.

Payment shock at renewal, by year of origination

Equity is one side of renewal risk. The payment is the other. Using Bank of Canada data on the average five-year posted rate, we compared the payment at origination with the payment at renewal for a $500,000 mortgage over 25 years.

A 2021 borrower who started at the average posted rate of 4.79% paid about $2,849 a month. At renewal in 2026, with about $441,032 left and the 2026 average posted rate of 6.10%, the payment on the remaining 20 years rises to about $3,166, an increase of $317 or 11.1%. A 2020 borrower renewing in 2025 saw a 10.8% increase, and a 2019 borrower renewing in 2024 a 12.2% increase.

These figures use posted rates, which are higher than the discounted rates most borrowers actually pay, so actual dollar amounts will be lower. The percentage change is a reasonable guide. Borrowers who took variable rates in 2020 and 2021 at prime minus a discount absorbed larger increases sooner, as prime rose from a 2.45% average in 2021 to 7.20% at the end of 2023 before easing back to 4.45% by the end of 2025. Prime rose to 4.70% after the Bank of Canada's hike to 2.50% on October 28, 2026.

Because payment shock depends on the loan size, it is far larger in dollar terms in Ontario and B.C., where average mortgages are biggest. An 11% increase on a Vancouver-sized mortgage is several hundred dollars more a month than the same increase on a Saskatoon-sized one. Our mortgage renewal cliff page tracks every cohort since 2000, and the renewal payment history report shows the full series.

How to read arrears and equity numbers without overreading them

Arrears data are useful but narrow, and a few limits shape how the tables above should be read.

First, the CBA figures cover mortgages held by its member banks only. Credit unions, which are large lenders in B.C., Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Quebec, are not included, nor are private lenders and mortgage investment corporations. Borrowers who could not qualify at a bank often went to those lenders, so stress among them is likely understated in bank data. No comparable public series measures arrears at those lenders.

Second, a mortgage counts as in arrears only after three missed monthly payments. By then, many borrowers have already drawn down savings, borrowed elsewhere or listed their home. Arrears are a lagging indicator: they show stress that began months earlier.

Third, an arrears rate is a share of all bank mortgages, most of which were taken out years ago at lower prices. A rate of 0.35% in Ontario does not mean 0.35% of recent buyers are behind; it is likely much higher among recent buyers with large loans and much lower among long-time owners.

Fourth, the equity estimates use benchmark prices and posted rates. Actual homes vary, actual rates were often lower than posted, and many borrowers made extra payments. The estimates show the direction and rough size of the problem by province, not the position of any one household.

With those limits in mind, the pattern is consistent across every measure we used: stress is rising where prices have fallen and loans are largest, and easing where prices have risen. Every new release of the CBA series and the MLS HPI will update the picture, and we will refresh these tables when they arrive.

Putting it together: renewal risk tiers by province

Combining arrears trend, equity position and CREA's October 2026 price forecast gives a clear picture. We group provinces into three tiers. This is an editorial reading of the data above, not a statistical model.

Saskatchewan and Manitoba sit in the middle because their arrears rates are among the highest in the country even though prices are rising, which points to income stress more than equity stress. Atlantic Canada has rising arrears from a moderate base but strong equity. Alberta and Quebec have the best combination of low or falling arrears and strong equity.

Each province has a forecast page with more detail: Ontario, British Columbia, Alberta and Quebec.

What a borrower in a higher-risk province can do before renewal

If you bought in Ontario or B.C. in 2021 or 2022, a few steps can reduce the risk of a bad renewal.

• Estimate your loan-to-value now. Find two or three recent sales of similar homes nearby and compare them with your outstanding balance. If your loan is above 80% of that value, switching lenders may be harder.
• Start early. Begin comparing offers four to six months before maturity. Rate holds commonly run up to about 120 days, so an early quote protects you if rates rise again.
• Know the switch rules. Insured mortgages can usually move to another lender at renewal without requalifying under the stress test, and uninsured straight switches at renewal have also been exempt since late 2024. Our switching lenders at renewal guide explains what applies.
• Consider amortization. Extending the amortization at renewal, where the lender allows it, lowers the payment at the cost of more interest over time.
• Talk to the lender before falling behind. Lenders have more options for a borrower who is still current, including blend-and-extend or temporary payment changes. See blend and extend explained.

Renewal risk in Canada is real but regional. A borrower in Quebec or Alberta who bought in 2021 is likely renewing with substantial equity. A borrower in Ontario who bought at the 2022 peak may owe more than the home is worth. Arrears are rising fastest exactly where equity is thinnest, which is why Ontario is the province to watch through 2027. For the national outlook, see the Canada housing market forecast.