B.C. Housing Market Forecast 2026 and 2027

CREA's British Columbia numbers for 2026 and 2027

CREA's October 2026 forecast lowered its sales outlook, citing a rise in fixed mortgage rates from early September and uncertainty about how far the Bank of Canada would have to raise its policy rate. The Bank did raise it to 2.50% on October 28. For British Columbia, CREA now expects 66,660 MLS sales in 2026, down 5.0% from 70,186 in 2025, which was itself down 5.7% from 2024.

Prices are expected to be close to flat. The B.C. average sale price was $952,719 in 2025, down 2.9% from the year before. CREA forecasts $944,685 for 2026, a 0.8% decline, and $952,645 for 2027, a 0.8% gain. If that path holds, the 2027 average will be almost exactly where 2025 ended. CREA also expects B.C. sales to rise 5.7% in 2027, to 70,480, the largest provincial sales gain in its table.

That combination, more sales but no price growth, describes a market working through a backlog of listings. Buyers who were waiting for rates to settle return, but there is enough supply on the market that they do not have to bid against each other. It is a buyer-friendly forecast, and it lines up with what the Greater Vancouver board reported for September 2026: sales 25% below the ten-year seasonal average and active listings 24.3% above it.

Coast, valley, island and interior: four different B.C. markets

The provincial average hides one of the clearest regional splits in Canada. The CREA MLS Home Price Index publishes benchmarks for B.C.'s main board areas, and the September 2026 readings fall into two camps.

The Lower Mainland is still correcting. Greater Vancouver's composite benchmark was $1,075,900, down 5.5% from $1,138,300 a year earlier and 14.1% below its April 2022 peak of $1,252,800. The Fraser Valley, which includes Surrey, Langley and Abbotsford, fell further: its benchmark was $861,300, down 7.1% from $927,600, and 27.6% below its March 2022 peak of $1,190,400. Its decline from peak is nearly double Greater Vancouver's, the largest of any B.C. region.

The rest of the province is steady or rising. Victoria's benchmark was $877,000, almost unchanged from $877,800 a year earlier. The Vancouver Island board area, which covers Nanaimo, Parksville and the Comox Valley, was $695,500, down 1.0%. The Interior board area, which covers Kelowna, Kamloops and the Okanagan, rose 1.4% to $664,600. Their condo benchmarks have also held up better than the Lower Mainland's, which limits the drag from the segment that is weakest on the coast.

Because the Lower Mainland holds most of the province's sales, it pulls the provincial average down even when the island and interior are stable. Anyone reading a B.C. headline should first ask which region it describes. Our city pages show the most local figure available, such as Kamloops, Nanaimo and Abbotsford, along with the source behind each one.

Detached, townhouse and condo prices across B.C.

Every home type fell in B.C. over the year to September 2026, but by different amounts. The provincial single-family benchmark was $1,119,600, down 5.9%. The townhouse benchmark was $776,100, down 4.7%. The apartment benchmark was $588,300, down 5.5%, and 12.2% below its May 2022 peak of $670,400.

In Greater Vancouver the Real Estate Board's own September release gave more detail. The detached benchmark was $1,784,700, down 7.3% over the year, yet detached sales rose 4.2% to 575. The apartment benchmark was $682,500, down 6.2%, and apartment sales fell 18.6% to 777. Townhouse sales were flat at 358 with a benchmark of $1,016,700, down 4.7%. The board's economist said weakness was concentrated in apartments, which usually make up about half of sales, and that investor demand was waiting for better conditions.

This is the opposite of the usual pattern. In most corrections, cheaper homes hold up better because more buyers can afford them. In Vancouver the cheapest segment, condos, has the weakest demand because a large share of buyers were investors and they have stepped back. Detached prices are falling too, but sales are rising, which suggests buyers see value at lower prices. Our Vancouver condo market page looks at the apartment segment in detail.

Listings, sales ratios and what they signal

Price forecasts lean heavily on the balance between buyers and sellers. Greater Vancouver's September 2026 numbers show a market with more sellers than it can absorb. There were 16,394 active listings, 4% fewer than a year earlier but 24.3% above the ten-year September average of 13,186. New listings in the month were 5,852, and sales were 1,717.

The board's sales-to-active-listings ratio was 10.9% across all home types: 9.7% for detached homes, 12.2% for townhouses and 11.4% for apartments. The board's rule of thumb is that a ratio below 12% sustained over several months puts downward pressure on prices, while a ratio above 20% tends to push prices up. Detached homes and apartments were below the 12% line in September and townhouses sat just above it, which is consistent with CREA's call for flat to slightly lower prices.

What would change this picture is a drop in new listings. Owners who do not need to sell often pull listings in a weak market, and that can tighten conditions quickly. For now the supply cushion is large. It would take a sustained period of sales above the ten-year average, or a sharp fall in listings, to move the ratio into the range where prices rise.

B.C. sales volumes against the long-run norm

Working back from CREA's percentages, B.C. MLS sales were about 74,400 in 2024. CREA's 2026 forecast of 66,660 would be about 10% below that and the lowest of the three years. Its 2027 forecast of 70,480 would still be below 2024. That is a slow recovery from a low base, not a return to the boom.

Greater Vancouver's numbers put the same point in local terms. September 2026 sales of 1,717 were 25% below the ten-year September average of 2,289. Low volume is itself a cost for owners who need to move: fewer buyers means longer selling times and more price cuts to close a sale. It also means fewer transactions to set new comparable prices, which can make appraisals more conservative.

For buyers, low sales volume is the other side of high choice. With sales a quarter below normal and listings about a quarter above, buyers in the Lower Mainland hold a strong negotiating position on the board's own figures.

How far B.C. affordability has improved, and how far it has to go

British Columbia remains the least affordable province even after the correction. Using each city's most local price figure and the Statistics Canada median family income for its census area, the price-to-income ratio is about 10.8 in the City of Vancouver, 8.8 in Burnaby, 7.2 in Victoria, 7.2 in Kelowna and 8.0 in the Fraser Valley board area that includes Surrey. Prince George, at about 3.7, and Kamloops, at about 5.8, are the most affordable larger B.C. cities on our tracker.

Rents have become a more important part of the decision. CMHC's October 2025 survey put the average two-bedroom purpose-built rent at $2,638 in the City of Vancouver, $2,147 in Burnaby, $2,076 in Victoria, $2,132 in Kelowna and $1,872 in Surrey. Vacancy rates were 2.7% in Vancouver, 5.9% in Burnaby and 6.9% in Kelowna. Kelowna's vacancy rate is one of the highest among Canadian cities on our tracker.

Higher vacancy is good news for renters and a warning for investors. When tenants have choices, landlords cannot raise rents to cover rising mortgage costs, and units bought for income lose value. That is one reason the condo segment, where investors are concentrated, is the weak spot in the province.

Kelowna's price is carried over from our earlier tracker data because we could not reach a current Kelowna benchmark; its page says so in the sources table. For the full ranking across Canada, see the affordability tracker.

What a flat B.C. forecast means for buyers, owners and landlords

For buyers in the Lower Mainland, a flat forecast with high listings is a favourable setup. Sales are well below normal and active listings are well above it, so buyers can negotiate on price, ask for subject clauses and take time to review strata documents and inspections. The constraint is the payment, not competition: at Greater Vancouver's composite benchmark of $1,075,900, a 20% down payment alone is more than $215,000.

For buyers on the Island and in the Interior, conditions are tighter. Prices there are stable or rising slightly, and the Kamloops two-bedroom vacancy rate was 1.2% in October 2025, which suggests demand has not cooled the way it has on the coast. Buyers in those markets should not expect the same discounts they would find in the Fraser Valley.

For owners who bought before 2020, the correction has trimmed pandemic gains but not erased earlier ones. The B.C. composite was $660,700 in September 2019 and is $868,900 today, 32% higher. Owners who bought between 2021 and the April 2022 peak are in a different position, and the renewal math in the arrears section below shows how thin their equity can be.

For landlords, B.C.'s mix of rising vacancy in some cities, provincial limits on short-term rentals and a speculation and vacancy tax on empty homes all point the same way: holding a condo as an investment costs more and earns less than it did in 2021. That is consistent with what the Greater Vancouver board reported, with investor demand for apartments on hold.

Mortgage arrears and renewal pressure in British Columbia

B.C.'s mortgage arrears rate has nearly tripled since 2022. The Canadian Bankers Association reported 0.27% of B.C. mortgages at member banks three or more months behind in August 2026, covering 1,817 mortgages out of 684,703. In August 2022 the rate was 0.10%. The 2026 rate is above the 0.14% B.C. reported in August 2019, before the pandemic.

The rise is smaller than Ontario's, where arrears went from 0.06% to 0.35% over the same period, and B.C. remains below the national rate of 0.30%. But the trend has been steady and upward every year since 2022. B.C. home prices are the highest in Canada, so each mortgage in arrears tends to involve a large balance and a potential forced sale.

Renewal equity is better than in Ontario because B.C. prices did not fall as far. A buyer who paid the provincial benchmark in September 2021, put 10% down and took a five-year fixed at the 2021 average posted rate of 4.79% would owe about 81% of today's benchmark value at renewal. A buyer at the April 2022 peak with 10% down at the 2022 average posted rate of 5.65% would owe about 97%, and with 20% down about 86%. In the Fraser Valley, where the drop was steeper, peak-era buyers are more likely to be near or below zero equity. These are benchmark estimates, not valuations of any one home.

Policy factors specific to British Columbia

Background, not data: several B.C. provincial housing rules shape the outlook. The speculation and vacancy tax applies to many homes left empty in designated urban areas, which pushes some owners to rent or sell. Provincial short-term rental rules that took effect in 2024 limited whole-unit rentals in most larger communities to the host's principal residence, which aims to return some units to the long-term rental market. Our B.C. speculation and vacancy tax guide explains who pays.

These policies push in the same direction as CREA's forecast. They raise the cost of holding a home that is not lived in, which reduces investor demand and adds supply to the rental market. That supports the flat price outlook and helps explain rising vacancy in some cities.

On the other side, B.C. is also pushing to add homes faster through provincial zoning changes that allow small multi-unit housing on many single-family lots. That will take years to show up in completions, but in the long run more supply is the most reliable way to bring prices closer to incomes.

How the B.C. forecast could break up or down

CREA's flat forecast is a reasonable middle. Here is what would move B.C. off it.

• Downside. If the Bank of Canada raises rates by the full amount markets were pricing in September, fixed and variable mortgage costs rise again and the Lower Mainland's high listing levels turn into larger price cuts. The Fraser Valley and Vancouver condos would lead. Under this path the B.C. benchmark could fall another 3% to 5% before stabilizing, a range we derive from the past year's pace rather than from any published forecast.
• Base. Rates rise modestly, listings stay elevated and sales recover in 2027 as CREA expects. Prices stay within a percent or two of today's level, with the Interior and Island steady and the Lower Mainland soft.
• Upside. Rates ease sooner than expected and the large pool of listings starts to clear. Detached homes in Vancouver, where sales are already rising, would likely lead any recovery.

B.C.'s housing market in 2026 is not a crash and not a rebound. It is a slow correction on the coast and a flat market inland. For buyers that means choice and time, especially in condos. For owners who bought near the 2022 peak, it means checking equity before renewal. The Vancouver housing market forecast takes the city view, and the Canada forecast puts B.C. in the national context.