Quebec Housing Market Forecast 2026 and 2027

Quebec in CREA's October 2026 forecast

Quebec was the strongest large provincial market in Canada in 2025. CREA's figures show 97,066 MLS sales that year, up 7.7%, and an average price of $541,661, up 8.1%. No other large province came close on either measure. The October 2026 forecast expects that run to slow but not reverse.

For 2026, CREA forecasts 92,078 Quebec sales, down 5.1%, and an average price of $563,135, up 4.0%. For 2027 it expects sales to rise 2.7% to 94,592 and the average price to rise 1.0% to $568,741. Quebec's 2027 price gain is among the smaller ones in the forecast, about the same as Nova Scotia's and below Alberta's 1.7%, which tells you CREA sees Quebec moving from leader to middle of the pack.

The national context matters. CREA cut its sales forecast across the country in October because fixed mortgage rates rose from early September and markets were pricing in about 100 basis points of Bank of Canada hikes over the following year. The Bank raised its policy rate to 2.50% on October 28. Quebec buyers are less stretched than those in Ontario or B.C., but the province's price gains over the past two years have made rates matter more there than they did in 2023.

A spring 2026 peak, then a pullback

Quebec is the only large province whose benchmark price set a new record this year. The MLS HPI composite reached $550,800 in April 2026. By September it had eased to $537,100, a 2.5% decline from that high, though still 1.1% above the September 2025 reading of $531,100. Montreal followed a similar path, peaking at $596,300 in June 2026 and easing to $578,200 in September, flat on the year.

The longer record shows how far Quebec has come. The provincial composite was $269,800 in September 2016 and $321,200 in September 2019. It rose to $425,700 by September 2021, then kept climbing when other provinces fell: $452,000 in 2022, $463,900 in 2023, $490,800 in 2024 and $531,100 in 2025. The benchmark has roughly doubled in ten years and is up 67% since 2019. That steady climb through the 2022 to 2024 rate hikes is what set Quebec apart.

By home type, the Quebec single-family benchmark was $610,400 in September 2026, up 1.6% in a year, and the apartment benchmark was $408,900, up 0.9%. Unlike Ontario and B.C., where condos lead the decline, Quebec condos are still rising slightly. In Montreal the apartment benchmark was $427,900, almost exactly where it was a year earlier.

Montreal, Quebec City and the regions

Inside Quebec, the regional centres are now rising faster than Montreal. The Quebec City CMA benchmark was $445,800 in September 2026, up 4.7% in a year. Estrie, centred on Sherbrooke, rose 7.3% to $475,400. Mauricie, centred on Trois-Rivières, rose 6.1% to $331,200. Montreal CMA was flat at $578,200.

Centris data for the third quarter of 2026 show the same pattern in the median price of single-family homes. The Drummondville median rose 11% to $450,000. Trois-Rivières rose 9% to $400,000. Lévis's Desjardins sector rose 7% to $431,000, and Chicoutimi rose 6% to $373,000. Closer to Montreal, Laval rose 5% to $630,000, Saint-Jérôme rose 6% to $540,000 and Longueuil's Saint-Hubert sector was flat at $587,500. Gatineau's Gatineau sector was the exception, down 2% to $464,900, as it competes with an Ottawa market that has also cooled.

Quarterly medians in smaller centres can swing with a few sales, so treat any single number with care. But the direction is consistent across sources: the cheaper regional markets are where Quebec's price momentum is now concentrated, while Montreal has levelled off. City-by-city sources are on each page, for example Quebec City, Sherbrooke and Drummondville.

Quebec sales: from a record 2025 to a smaller 2026

Quebec's sales history explains why a 5.1% decline in 2026 is less alarming than it sounds. Working back from CREA's figures, Quebec MLS sales were about 90,100 in 2024. They jumped 7.7% to 97,066 in 2025, the strongest year among the large provinces. CREA's 2026 forecast of 92,078 would still be above 2024, and its 2027 forecast of 94,592 would bring sales back near 2025 levels.

So Quebec is cooling from a peak rather than slumping. That is different from Ontario and B.C., where 2026 sales are forecast to fall from already weak levels. It is also why CREA can expect prices to keep rising in Quebec while sales fall: buyers are fewer than in 2025 but still more numerous than in 2024.

The exception is Montreal condos. Centris reported a 15% drop in Island condo sales in the third quarter of 2026 alongside a 12% rise in active condo listings, a combination that points to a looser segment inside an otherwise firm provincial market. Our Montreal condo market page follows those numbers quarter by quarter.

For sellers, the takeaway is that demand is still there but less urgent. Homes priced to recent sales continue to sell, especially outside Montreal, while overpriced listings sit longer than they did in 2025.

Montreal Island by home type

Centris's third-quarter 2026 statistics for the Island of Montreal show a market with a widening gap between houses and condos. The median single-family price was $812,000, up 2% from a year earlier. The median condo price was $477,000, unchanged. Condo sales fell 15% to 1,728, and active condo listings rose 12% to 6,696. Condos spent an average of 67 days on the market.

That is the first sign of strain in a segment that had been rising steadily. Falling sales and rising listings usually come before price weakness. It is still mild compared with Toronto or Vancouver, where condo benchmarks are down 6% to 7% in a year, but it shows Montreal's condo market is no longer immune. Our Montreal condo market page tracks the segment in more detail, and the Montreal housing market forecast covers the city as a whole.

For houses, demand has held up, and Island houses remain much cheaper than comparable homes in Toronto or Vancouver. The median Island house at $812,000 costs less than the Greater Toronto composite benchmark of $917,600, which includes condos.

Gatineau and the Ottawa connection

Gatineau is the one large Quebec market that moves with Ontario more than with Montreal. Many of its residents work in Ottawa, and buyers compare homes on both sides of the river. Centris's third-quarter 2026 figures put the median single-family price in the Gatineau sector at $464,900, down 2% from a year earlier, the only decline among the Quebec centres in our tracker. Across the river, Ottawa's composite benchmark was $623,500 in September 2026, down 0.3%.

The two numbers measure different things, a median of houses sold in Gatineau against a benchmark of all home types in Ottawa, so the gap between them is only a rough guide. Even so, the Quebec side is substantially cheaper. Rents are lower too: CMHC put the average two-bedroom rent at $1,450 in Gatineau against $1,918 in Ottawa in October 2025, with vacancy of 3.8% and 2.9%.

Incomes are close. Statistics Canada's 2023 median census family income was $122,030 for the Quebec part of the Ottawa-Gatineau area and $134,550 for the Ontario part. On those figures the Gatineau single-family median is about 3.8 times family income, against about 4.6 for the Ottawa benchmark. Buyers working in Ottawa can often afford more house in Gatineau, though Quebec's welcome tax, provincial income tax and commuting costs all belong in the comparison. Our Ottawa housing market forecast and Gatineau affordability page give each side's details.

What a slower Quebec market means for buyers and sellers

For buyers, the main change in 2026 is time. In 2025 Quebec sales rose 7.7% and the average price rose 8.1%, which rewarded buying early. CREA now expects 2026 sales to fall 5.1% and prices to rise 4.0%, then 1.0% in 2027. That still means prices are rising, so waiting is not free the way it is in Ontario. But the pressure to bid fast has eased, especially in Montreal, where the benchmark has slipped since June.

For buyers in the regional centres, the picture is different. Quebec City, Sherbrooke, Trois-Rivières and Drummondville are still posting gains of roughly 5% to 11%, and their vacancy rates are low. Inventory there is tighter, and good homes still sell quickly. A buyer comparing a Montreal condo with a regional house is comparing a flat market with a rising one.

For sellers, the spring 2026 peak is likely the high point for this cycle in Montreal. Pricing to April or June comparables risks a long listing. In the regions, sellers still have the upper hand, though CREA expects provincial price growth to slow from 4.0% this year to 1.0% in 2027.

For owners renewing in 2026 and 2027, Quebec is the safest province in the country on the numbers. Most have gained equity since they bought, and arrears are the lowest of any region. A higher renewal rate will still raise payments, but most Quebec borrowers have room to switch lenders or extend their amortization if they need to.

Quebec affordability and the rent alternative

Quebec remains the most affordable large province for renters, and its regional cities are among the most affordable for buyers, though the gap is narrowing. Using each city's local price figure and the Statistics Canada 2023 median family income for its census area, the Montreal CMA benchmark is about 5.4 times family income. Quebec City is about 3.8, Gatineau about 3.8, Sherbrooke about 4.7, Trois-Rivières about 4.1 and Saguenay's Chicoutimi sector about 3.5. Laval, at about 5.9, is now less affordable than Montreal itself on this measure because its figure is a single-family median.

Rents are low by national standards. CMHC's October 2025 survey put the average two-bedroom purpose-built rent at $1,348 in the City of Montreal, $1,297 in Quebec City, $1,072 in Sherbrooke, $1,013 in Trois-Rivières and $995 in Saguenay. Vacancy was 3.0% in Montreal, 2.2% in Quebec City and under 2% in Drummondville, Chicoutimi and Saint-Jérôme. Quebec's rent rules limit how quickly rents on existing leases can rise, which keeps many sitting tenants well below market rents and reduces turnover.

Low rents relative to prices have a direct effect on the ownership market. In Montreal the average two-bedroom rent is roughly half of what it is in Vancouver, while the typical home costs about half as much too. Lower prices do not mean easy investor math, though. With 20% down on the Montreal apartment benchmark of $427,900, the mortgage alone is about $1,895 a month at an illustrative 4.5% rate, well above the $1,348 average two-bedroom rent, so a buyer purchasing purely to rent the unit out would usually carry a monthly shortfall.

Quebec borrowers have the lowest arrears in Canada

Quebec has the lowest mortgage arrears rate of any region in the Canadian Bankers Association data. In August 2026, 0.19% of Quebec bank mortgages were three or more months behind, covering 1,744 out of 931,874. The national rate was 0.30%, Ontario's was 0.35% and Saskatchewan's 0.45%.

Quebec's rate has risen from a low of 0.11% in August 2022, but the increase has been slow, and it is still below the 0.26% Quebec recorded in August 2019. Rising prices have given Quebec borrowers equity to fall back on. A buyer who paid the provincial benchmark in September 2021, put 10% down and took a five-year fixed at the 2021 average posted rate of 4.79% would owe only about 63% of today's benchmark value at renewal, because prices have risen about 26% since then.

That equity cushion is one of the strongest supports for the forecast. Quebec owners who face higher renewal payments can usually switch lenders, extend their amortization or refinance, rather than sell under pressure. Forced selling is what turns a slowdown into a price decline, and Quebec has little of it. The mortgage renewal risk by province page compares Quebec with every other region.

Risks to the Quebec outlook

Quebec's fundamentals are better than most provinces', but three things could push prices below CREA's path.

• Rates catching up. Quebec prices rose 67% from 2019 to 2026, so buyers in 2025 and 2026 are borrowing more relative to income than Quebec buyers did before the pandemic. If the Bank of Canada raises rates as far as markets priced in September, Quebec's newest buyers would feel it more than the province's history suggests.
• Montreal condo supply. Rising listings and falling sales in Island condos are an early warning. If listings keep rising into 2027, condo prices could start to decline as they have elsewhere.
• Political uncertainty. Talk of a future sovereignty referendum has been raised as a risk for Montreal investment. Our referendum precedent analysis looks at what happened to Montreal housing around past votes.

A fourth, slower risk is that Quebec's regional gains run ahead of local incomes. In Drummondville, the third-quarter single-family median rose 11% in a year, and in Trois-Rivières 9%, far faster than household incomes typically grow. Price-to-income ratios in the regions are still low, between about 3.5 and 4.7, so there is room, but several more years of gains at this pace would erode the affordability that drew buyers in the first place. On the other side, Quebec's low arrears, high equity and affordable regional markets all point to a gentle slowdown rather than a correction. The CREA forecast of 4.0% growth in 2026 and 1.0% in 2027 is a reasonable middle case. For buyers, regional cities like Quebec City, Sherbrooke and Trois-Rivières offer the best value but also the fastest price growth, so waiting has a cost there that it does not have in Toronto or Vancouver. For the full national comparison, see the Canada housing market forecast, and for the province next door, the Ontario forecast.