The findings, in five lines
- The posted 5-year rate averaged 8.34% in 2000, fell to a 4.66% annual average in 2016, and climbed back to 6.73% in 2024, the highest annual average since 2008.
- The two-year rise from the 2021 average of 4.79% to the 2023 average of 6.68% is +1.89 percentage points, the largest two-year increase in annual averages anywhere in the 2000-2026 window.
- In 2021 the posted rate printed 4.79% in all 52 weekly observations while the policy rate sat at 0.25% and discounted contract rates fell far below it. The benchmark barely moved during the cheapest borrowing year in Canadian history.
- Prime did the damage for variable-rate borrowers: it averaged 2.45% in 2021, ended 2023 at 7.20%, and stands at 4.45% in the latest observation (2026-10-21).
- A $500,000 mortgage over 25 years at each year's average posted rate cost $2,849 a month at the 2021 average and $3,419 at the 2024 average - a gap of roughly $570 a month on the same loan, before any discount off posted.
Read this before the table: posted is not what you pay
The Bank of Canada publishes the chartered banks' posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate every week. Posted rates are the list prices on a bank's rate sheet. Almost nobody signs at the list price: contract rates are negotiated below posted, and the size of the discount changes with competition, the borrower, and the market. Any history built on discounted rates would be a history of individual deals, which no public series records.
The posted series is still the right series to publish, for two reasons. First, it is the only long, official, reproducible record of where 5-year pricing stood - the same figures the Bank of Canada itself archives back through this whole period. Second, the posted rate is load-bearing in the mortgage system: for years the stress-test benchmark rate was set from the big banks' posted 5-year rates, so the posted series decided how much thousands of borrowers were allowed to borrow, even though it was never the rate on their contracts. Where this page computes payments, it says so, and the figures are labelled as posted-rate math throughout.
The prime rate and the policy rate need no such caveat. Prime is the base rate variable mortgages and HELOCs are priced from, and the policy rate is the Bank of Canada's target for the overnight rate, the lever the whole curve hangs off. Both are published exactly, and both are in the table below.
The dataset: Canadian mortgage rates by year, 2000-2026
Averages are the mean of that year's weekly observations. The payment column is the monthly payment on a $500,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization at that year's average posted 5-year rate, using Canadian semi-annual compounding. Click a column header to sort. The 2026 row covers January 1 to October 21, 2026, the latest Bank of Canada observation available on the publication date. The policy-rate column starts in 2009 because that is where the Bank's daily Valet series begins.
| Year | Posted 5-year avg | Posted 5-year range | Posted 5-year year-end | Prime avg | Prime year-end | Policy rate year-end | Payment, $500k / 25 yr at avg posted |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 8.34% | 7.95% - 8.75% | 7.95% | 7.24% | 7.50% | n/a | $3,925 |
| 2001 | 7.43% | 6.45% - 7.95% | 6.85% | 5.99% | 4.00% | n/a | $3,636 |
| 2002 | 7.00% | 6.70% - 7.45% | 6.70% | 4.20% | 4.50% | n/a | $3,502 |
| 2003 | 6.42% | 5.80% - 6.85% | 6.45% | 4.69% | 4.50% | n/a | $3,325 |
| 2004 | 6.25% | 5.70% - 6.70% | 6.05% | 4.00% | 4.25% | n/a | $3,274 |
| 2005 | 5.98% | 5.70% - 6.30% | 6.30% | 4.40% | 5.00% | n/a | $3,193 |
| 2006 | 6.64% | 6.30% - 6.95% | 6.45% | 5.76% | 6.00% | n/a | $3,392 |
| 2007 | 7.01% | 6.44% - 7.54% | 7.54% | 6.10% | 6.00% | n/a | $3,505 |
| 2008 | 7.10% | 6.65% - 7.54% | 6.75% | 4.80% | 3.50% | n/a | $3,533 |
| 2009 | 5.69% | 5.25% - 6.75% | 5.49% | 2.42% | 2.25% | 0.25% | $3,107 |
| 2010 | 5.57% | 5.19% - 6.25% | 5.19% | 2.59% | 3.00% | 1.00% | $3,072 |
| 2011 | 5.39% | 5.19% - 5.69% | 5.29% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 1.00% | $3,020 |
| 2012 | 5.27% | 5.14% - 5.44% | 5.24% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 1.00% | $2,985 |
| 2013 | 5.23% | 5.14% - 5.34% | 5.34% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 1.00% | $2,974 |
| 2014 | 4.89% | 4.79% - 5.34% | 4.79% | 3.00% | 3.00% | 1.00% | $2,877 |
| 2015 | 4.67% | 4.64% - 4.79% | 4.64% | 2.79% | 2.70% | 0.50% | $2,815 |
| 2016 | 4.66% | 4.64% - 4.74% | 4.64% | 2.70% | 2.70% | 0.50% | $2,812 |
| 2017 | 4.77% | 4.64% - 4.99% | 4.99% | 2.89% | 3.20% | 1.00% | $2,843 |
| 2018 | 5.27% | 4.99% - 5.34% | 5.34% | 3.60% | 3.95% | 1.75% | $2,985 |
| 2019 | 5.27% | 5.19% - 5.34% | 5.19% | 3.95% | 3.95% | 1.75% | $2,985 |
| 2020 | 4.95% | 4.79% - 5.19% | 4.79% | 2.77% | 2.45% | 0.25% | $2,894 |
| 2021 | 4.79% | 4.79% - 4.79% | 4.79% | 2.45% | 2.45% | 0.25% | $2,849 |
| 2022 | 5.65% | 4.79% - 6.49% | 6.49% | 4.11% | 6.45% | 4.25% | $3,096 |
| 2023 | 6.68% | 6.49% - 7.04% | 7.04% | 6.94% | 7.20% | 5.00% | $3,404 |
| 2024 | 6.73% | 6.49% - 7.04% | 6.49% | 6.77% | 5.45% | 3.25% | $3,419 |
| 2025 | 6.23% | 6.09% - 6.49% | 6.09% | 4.91% | 4.45% | 2.25% | $3,268 |
| 2026 (YTD) | 6.10% | 6.09% - 6.19% | 6.19% | 4.45% | 4.45% | 2.25% | $3,229 |
Source: Bank of Canada Valet API, series V80691335 (posted 5-year), V80691311 (prime), V39079 (policy rate). Computed by the checked-in script scripts/data/mortgage-rate-history.mjs. Download this table as CSV.
Four eras in one series
2000-2008: the long plateau nobody remembers as cheap
The century opened with the posted 5-year at its dataset high: 8.75% in the week of May 24, 2000, and an 8.34% average for the year. Rates ground down through the early 2000s, then rose again into 2007 and 2008, when the annual average sat at 7.01% and 7.10%. Prime ended 2008 at 3.50% after the financial crisis cuts, even though the posted 5-year average for that year barely budged - the first clear sign in the data that posted and market rates can live separate lives.
2009-2019: the floor years
After 2009 the posted rate settled into a narrow band. It printed its dataset low of 4.64% in April 2015 and stayed there for 110 weeks, through July 2017. The lowest annual average of the whole dataset is 2016 at 4.66%. A borrower qualifying for a mortgage in that window faced a benchmark under 5% and a payment on $500,000, over 25 years, of about $2,812at the posted average. This is also the era the stress test arrived in: from October 2016, insured mortgages had to qualify at the benchmark rate, and from January 1, 2018, OSFI's B-20 rules extended a stress test to uninsured mortgages at federally regulated lenders, at the higher of the contract rate plus 2 points or the benchmark.
2020-2021: the year the benchmark froze
The pandemic cuts took the policy rate to 0.25% in March 2020 and prime to a 2.45% average in 2021. Discounted 5-year contract rates fell to levels no dataset of signed deals is needed to call historic. The posted rate did something stranger: after a brief dip it locked at 4.79% and stayed there for every one of the 52 weekly observations in 2021. The benchmark that decided borrowing power was, for a full calendar year, a flat line.
Regulators noticed the gap between a frozen benchmark and real rates. In June 2021 the minimum qualifying rate became the higher of the contract rate plus 2 points or a fixed floor of 5.25%, replacing the posted-rate benchmark as the binding constraint for most borrowers. The stress-test rules as they stand now are set out in this site's mortgage stress test guide, and you can run your own numbers in the stress test calculator.
2022-2026: the fastest tightening in the dataset
The policy rate rose from 0.25% to a 5.00% peak in July 2023. The posted 5-year average followed with a lag and a smaller amplitude: 5.65% in 2022, 6.68% in 2023, 6.73% in 2024. The 2023-2024 averages are the highest since 2008, and the 2021-to-2023 climb of +1.89 points is the steepest two-year rise in the table. Since then the series has eased rather than fallen: 6.23% in 2025 and 6.19% in the latest weekly print, with the policy rate back down to 2.25%. Posted is doing again what it did in 2008 - moving less, and later, than the policy rate underneath it.
The renewal cohort, priced from this table
The borrowers under the most pressure in 2026 are the ones who signed 5-year terms in 2021. This is the posted-rate version of their renewal, with every input taken from the dataset above. A $500,000 mortgage signed at the 2021 average posted rate of 4.79%, on a 25-year amortization, carried a payment of $2,849 a month. Five years of payments bring the balance to $441,032. Renewing that balance over the remaining 20 years at the 2026 average posted rate of 6.10% produces a payment of $3,166, up $317 a month.
Two caveats belong beside those figures, not in a footnote. First, they are posted-rate figures: the same household almost certainly signed below 4.79% in 2021 and will sign below the 2026 posted average, so the dollar increase on a real contract will differ - generally the percentage increase on a deeply discounted 2021 contract renewing at a 2026 discounted rate is larger than the posted-rate version suggests, because the 2021 discount was the bigger one. Second, this is one loan size and one amortization. The site's mortgage renewal calculator runs the same math on your own balance and rate, and the mortgage renewal cliff guide works through the options - term choice, amortization, switching lenders - that change the outcome.
| Cohort step | Rate (avg posted) | Balance | Monthly payment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signed in 2021, 25-year amortization | 4.79% | $500,000 | $2,849 |
| Balance after 5 years of payments | - | $441,032 | - |
| Renewed in 2026, 20 years remaining | 6.10% | $441,032 | $3,166 (+$317) |
Month-end detail, 2022-2026
The last weekly observation of each month, for readers who need the turning points rather than the annual shape: the 2022 liftoff, the October 2023 peak in the posted series at 7.04%, and the slow easing since.
| Month | Posted 5-year, month-end | Prime, month-end |
|---|---|---|
| 2022-01 | 4.79% | 2.45% |
| 2022-02 | 4.79% | 2.45% |
| 2022-03 | 4.79% | 2.70% |
| 2022-04 | 4.99% | 3.20% |
| 2022-05 | 5.39% | 3.20% |
| 2022-06 | 6.04% | 3.70% |
| 2022-07 | 6.14% | 4.70% |
| 2022-08 | 6.14% | 4.70% |
| 2022-09 | 6.14% | 5.45% |
| 2022-10 | 6.49% | 5.45% |
| 2022-11 | 6.49% | 5.95% |
| 2022-12 | 6.49% | 6.45% |
| 2023-01 | 6.49% | 6.45% |
| 2023-02 | 6.49% | 6.70% |
| 2023-03 | 6.49% | 6.70% |
| 2023-04 | 6.49% | 6.70% |
| 2023-05 | 6.49% | 6.70% |
| 2023-06 | 6.49% | 6.95% |
| 2023-07 | 6.49% | 7.20% |
| 2023-08 | 6.84% | 7.20% |
| 2023-09 | 6.84% | 7.20% |
| 2023-10 | 7.04% | 7.20% |
| 2023-11 | 7.04% | 7.20% |
| 2023-12 | 7.04% | 7.20% |
| 2024-01 | 6.89% | 7.20% |
| 2024-02 | 6.84% | 7.20% |
| 2024-03 | 6.84% | 7.20% |
| 2024-04 | 6.84% | 7.20% |
| 2024-05 | 6.84% | 7.20% |
| 2024-06 | 6.84% | 6.95% |
| 2024-07 | 6.79% | 6.70% |
| 2024-08 | 6.59% | 6.70% |
| 2024-09 | 6.49% | 6.45% |
| 2024-10 | 6.49% | 5.95% |
| 2024-11 | 6.49% | 5.95% |
| 2024-12 | 6.49% | 5.45% |
| 2025-01 | 6.49% | 5.45% |
| 2025-02 | 6.49% | 5.20% |
| 2025-03 | 6.49% | 4.95% |
| 2025-04 | 6.49% | 4.95% |
| 2025-05 | 6.09% | 4.95% |
| 2025-06 | 6.09% | 4.95% |
| 2025-07 | 6.09% | 4.95% |
| 2025-08 | 6.09% | 4.95% |
| 2025-09 | 6.09% | 4.70% |
| 2025-10 | 6.09% | 4.70% |
| 2025-11 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2025-12 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-01 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-02 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-03 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-04 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-05 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-06 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-07 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-08 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-09 | 6.09% | 4.45% |
| 2026-10 | 6.19% | 4.45% |
Methodology and limits
- Sources. Bank of Canada Valet API, pulled October 22, 2026: V80691335 (posted 5-year conventional, weekly, 1,399 observations from January 5, 2000), V80691311 (prime, weekly, 1,399 observations), V39079 (policy rate, daily, from April 21, 2009 - the Valet daily series does not extend earlier, which is why the policy column starts in 2009).
- Averages. Each annual figure is the simple mean of that year's weekly observations. 2026 is a partial year: January 1 to October 21, 2026.
- Payments. Monthly payment on a fixed principal and amortization at a fixed rate, nominal rate with semi-annual compounding converted to a monthly equivalent - the Canadian convention. The renewal balance applies 60 monthly payments at the 2021 rate with no prepayments, fees, or amortization changes.
- What this is not. Posted rates are not contract rates. Nothing here is a record of what any borrower actually paid, and the payment index is a measuring stick for comparing years, not a quote. For current discounted pricing, see mortgage rates in Canada and lender rate sheets.
- Reproduce it. The script that builds this dataset from the raw Bank of Canada series is checked into the site repository at scripts/data/mortgage-rate-history.mjs. Run it and you get these tables.
Cite this dataset
BubbleWatch.ca, "Canadian Mortgage Rate History, 2000-2026", computed from Bank of Canada Valet series V80691335, V80691311 and V39079. Published October 22, 2026. https://bubblewatch.ca/reports/mortgage-rate-history-canada/
Data: annual table (CSV) - free to reuse with a link back to this page. Related BubbleWatch trackers: the Canada housing market dashboard, the affordability index, and the reports index.
Frequently asked questions
What is the posted 5-year mortgage rate in Canada right now?
The Bank of Canada's chartered bank posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate was 6.19% in the week of 2026-10-21. That is the posted rate, not a rate most borrowers sign at: contract rates are negotiated below posted, and the gap varies by lender. The posted series matters because the mortgage stress-test benchmark was built from it.
What was the 5-year fixed mortgage rate in Canada in 2021?
On the posted series published by the Bank of Canada, the 5-year rate averaged 4.79% in 2021 and printed exactly 4.79% in all 52 weekly observations that year. Discounted contract rates in 2021 were well below the posted rate. This dataset tracks the posted series because it is the official published benchmark series, not because it matches what any individual borrower paid.
When were Canadian mortgage rates at their highest and lowest?
Within this dataset (2000-2026), the posted 5-year rate peaked at 8.75% in the week of May 24, 2000 and bottomed at 4.64%, a level it held for 110 weeks between April 8, 2015 and July 12, 2017. The lowest annual average was 4.66% in 2016. Rates in the early 1980s were far higher than anything in this window; the dataset starts in 2000 because that is the window this study computed.
Why does the mortgage stress test use a benchmark rate instead of my contract rate?
The stress test is designed to check that a borrower could still carry the loan if rates rise. Since June 2021 the minimum qualifying rate has been the higher of the contract rate plus 2 percentage points or a 5.25% floor. Before the floor, the benchmark came from the posted 5-year rates of the large banks, which is the series in this dataset. A posted series that barely moves, like the 4.79% print through all of 2021, is one reason regulators moved to a fixed floor.
How much more does a 2021 borrower pay at renewal in 2026, on these numbers?
On a posted-rate basis, a $500,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization at the 2021 average posted rate of 4.79% carried a payment of $2,849 a month. After five years the balance is $441,032. Renewing that balance over the remaining 20 years at the 2026 average posted rate of 6.10% gives $3,166 a month, an increase of $317. Actual borrowers signed below posted in 2021 and will sign below posted at renewal, so treat this as the benchmark-rate version of the renewal gap, not a prediction of any one household's bill.
Where does this data come from, and can I download it?
Every rate comes from the Bank of Canada's Valet API: series V80691335 (posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate, weekly), V80691311 (prime lending rate, weekly) and V39079 (policy interest rate, daily). The annual table is available as a CSV download on this page. The build script that computes the dataset from the raw series is checked into the site repository, so any figure here can be reproduced from the source series.
Educational information only, not mortgage advice. Rates change weekly; confirm any rate with the lender before acting on it.