What the renewal record shows
- Of 22 five-year cohorts from 2000 to 2021, 11 renewed into a higher payment and 11 into a lower one. For most of this century, renewal was more often a pay cut than a shock.
- Every cohort that signed from 2004 to 2012 renewed lower. The 2008 cohort saw its payment fall $481 a month (-13.6%), and the 2000 cohort had the largest drop in the series at -$637.
- The five largest increases all belong to the 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 cohorts, renewing from 2022 to 2026. The peak is the 2019 cohort: +$365 a month (+12.2%) on renewal in 2024.
- To keep its original payment, the 2019 cohort would have needed 26.2 years of amortization remaining at renewal instead of 20, which stretches the loan to 31.2 years from the day it was signed.
- Borrowers who signed in 2016 renewed almost flat in 2021 (+$31) and then faced a second renewal in 2026 at $3,090, +$278 above what they paid when the mortgage was new.
How every cohort is priced
Renewal shock is usually discussed one cohort at a time, and almost always the current one. This dataset runs the same experiment on every year the Bank of Canada series allows, so a 2026 renewal can be set beside a 2008 or a 2013 renewal on identical terms. Each cohort takes out a $500,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization at that year's average posted 5-year rate. It makes 60 monthly payments. The remaining balance is then renewed for the remaining 20 years at the average posted 5-year rate of the calendar year five years later. Nothing else changes: no prepayments, no lump sums, no fees, no switch to a variable rate.
Holding the amortization on schedule matters for one reason worth stating plainly. If the renewal rate equals the original rate, the renewal payment is the same as the original payment, to within a dollar. The 2002 cohort shows it: the posted average moved from 7.00% to 7.01%, and the payment moved +$3. The 2013 cohort is the same story at +0.04 pts and +$9. So every dollar of change in this table comes from the rate, not from the passage of time. That makes the column a clean measure of what the rate cycle did to each group of borrowers.
The rates are posted rates, the list prices the chartered banks report to the Bank of Canada every week (series V80691335). Contract rates are negotiated below posted, and the size of that discount changes over time, so no single household paid these exact amounts. The posted series is used because it is the only long, official and reproducible record of 5-year pricing. The full rate history behind it, with annual ranges and year-end values, is in the Canadian mortgage rate history dataset.
The dataset: payment before and after renewal, by cohort
One row per cohort. Rates are annual averages of weekly observations; payments use Canadian semi-annual compounding. The 2026 renewal rate is a year-to-date average through the latest Bank of Canada observation available when the rate dataset was built (2026-10-21). The last column is the remaining amortization, in years, that would keep the original payment unchanged at the renewal rate; anything above 20 means the borrower would need to extend the loan to avoid a higher bill. Click any column header to sort.
| Signed | Renewed | Posted 5-yr at signing | Posted 5-yr at renewal | Rate change | Payment at signing | Balance at renewal | Payment at renewal | Change | Change % | Per $100k borrowed | Years needed to hold payment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 2005 | 8.34% | 5.98% | -2.36 pts | $3,925 | $462,415 | $3,288 | -$637 | -16.2% | -$127 | 14.7 |
| 2001 | 2006 | 7.43% | 6.64% | -0.79 pts | $3,636 | $457,626 | $3,425 | -$211 | -5.8% | -$42 | 17.8 |
| 2002 | 2007 | 7.00% | 7.01% | +0.01 pts | $3,502 | $455,229 | $3,505 | +$3 | +0.1% | +$1 | 20.0 |
| 2003 | 2008 | 6.42% | 7.10% | +0.68 pts | $3,325 | $451,786 | $3,502 | +$177 | +5.3% | +$35 | 22.5 |
| 2004 | 2009 | 6.25% | 5.69% | -0.56 pts | $3,274 | $450,729 | $3,132 | -$142 | -4.3% | -$28 | 18.5 |
| 2005 | 2010 | 5.98% | 5.57% | -0.41 pts | $3,193 | $449,063 | $3,091 | -$102 | -3.2% | -$20 | 18.9 |
| 2006 | 2011 | 6.64% | 5.39% | -1.25 pts | $3,392 | $453,094 | $3,074 | -$318 | -9.4% | -$64 | 16.9 |
| 2007 | 2012 | 7.01% | 5.27% | -1.74 pts | $3,505 | $455,292 | $3,059 | -$446 | -12.7% | -$89 | 16.0 |
| 2008 | 2013 | 7.10% | 5.23% | -1.87 pts | $3,533 | $455,795 | $3,052 | -$481 | -13.6% | -$96 | 15.7 |
| 2009 | 2014 | 5.69% | 4.89% | -0.80 pts | $3,107 | $447,222 | $2,912 | -$195 | -6.3% | -$39 | 18.0 |
| 2010 | 2015 | 5.57% | 4.67% | -0.90 pts | $3,072 | $446,426 | $2,855 | -$217 | -7.1% | -$43 | 17.8 |
| 2011 | 2016 | 5.39% | 4.66% | -0.73 pts | $3,020 | $445,204 | $2,844 | -$176 | -5.8% | -$35 | 18.2 |
| 2012 | 2017 | 5.27% | 4.77% | -0.50 pts | $2,985 | $444,417 | $2,865 | -$120 | -4.0% | -$24 | 18.7 |
| 2013 | 2018 | 5.23% | 5.27% | +0.04 pts | $2,974 | $444,109 | $2,983 | +$9 | +0.3% | +$2 | 20.1 |
| 2014 | 2019 | 4.89% | 5.27% | +0.38 pts | $2,877 | $441,755 | $2,968 | +$91 | +3.2% | +$18 | 21.1 |
| 2015 | 2020 | 4.67% | 4.95% | +0.28 pts | $2,815 | $440,196 | $2,881 | +$66 | +2.3% | +$13 | 20.8 |
| 2016 | 2021 | 4.66% | 4.79% | +0.13 pts | $2,812 | $440,138 | $2,843 | +$31 | +1.1% | +$6 | 20.4 |
| 2017 | 2022 | 4.77% | 5.65% | +0.88 pts | $2,843 | $440,915 | $3,054 | +$211 | +7.4% | +$42 | 23.0 |
| 2018 | 2023 | 5.27% | 6.68% | +1.41 pts | $2,985 | $444,417 | $3,337 | +$352 | +11.8% | +$70 | 25.9 |
| 2019 | 2024 | 5.27% | 6.73% | +1.46 pts | $2,985 | $444,417 | $3,350 | +$365 | +12.2% | +$73 | 26.2 |
| 2020 | 2025 | 4.95% | 6.23% | +1.28 pts | $2,894 | $442,176 | $3,206 | +$312 | +10.8% | +$62 | 24.9 |
| 2021 | 2026 (YTD) | 4.79% | 6.10% | +1.31 pts | $2,849 | $441,032 | $3,166 | +$317 | +11.1% | +$63 | 25.0 |
Source: Bank of Canada Valet API, series V80691335 (chartered bank posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate, weekly), annual averages 2000-2026 as published in the BubbleWatch annual rate table. Cohort math by the checked-in script scripts/data/mortgage-renewal-cohorts.mjs. Updated November 12, 2026. Download this table as CSV.
Five renewal eras in the record
Signed 2000-2001: the windfall cohorts
The first cohort in the data signed at an 8.34% posted average, the highest annual figure in the series, and renewed in 2005 at 5.98%. Its payment fell from $3,925 to $3,288, -16.2%. A borrower in that position who simply kept paying the old amount would have been on track to clear the loan in 14.7 more years instead of 20, a little under 20 years in total from signing. The 2001 cohort renewed lower too, by $211. These are the renewals that shaped a generation's sense that renewal day is a formality.
Signed 2002-2003: the only pre-2013 increases
Two cohorts broke the early pattern. The 2002 group renewed in 2007 at a rate within one basis point of where it started, so its payment barely moved. The 2003 group signed at 6.42% and renewed in 2008 at 7.10%, the peak of the mid-2000s rate cycle, for an increase of +$177 a month (+5.3%). That was the largest renewal increase in the data until the 2017 cohort renewed in 2022. It is a useful calibration point: the biggest renewal increase of the 2000s was at least $135 a month smaller than each of the increases the 2018 to 2021 cohorts faced.
Signed 2004-2012: nine cohorts in a row renew lower
From the 2004 cohort through the 2012 cohort, every renewal came in below the original payment. The deepest cuts went to borrowers who signed near the 2007-2008 peak and renewed into the post-crisis floor: the 2007 cohort fell $446 a month and the 2008 cohort $481, a 13.6% reduction. For these households, the decision at renewal was not how to absorb a higher bill but what to do with the room: keep the old payment and shorten the loan, or take the lower payment. The last column of the table shows how much room there was. The 2008 cohort could have kept its original payment and finished the loan in 15.7 years from renewal.
Signed 2013-2016: small increases, then a second test
The posted rate spent 2015 to 2017 at the dataset floor, and cohorts that signed from 2013 to 2016 renewed into a flat to slightly higher market. Their first renewals were mild: from +$9 for the 2013 cohort to +$91 for the 2014 cohort. The catch is the second renewal. These are the borrowers whose second 5-year term ended in 2023 to 2026, so they met the rate rise at the 10-year mark rather than the 5-year mark. That story has its own table below.
Signed 2017-2021: the five largest increases on record
Every cohort from 2017 to 2021 renewed at least 7% higher. The posted average rose from 4.77% in 2017 to 5.65% in 2022, 6.68% in 2023 and 6.73% in 2024, before easing to 6.23% in 2025 and 6.10% so far in 2026. The 2018 and 2019 cohorts both signed at 5.27% and renewed into the two highest annual averages since 2008, which is why they top the table at +$352 and +$365.
The 2021 cohort gets the most attention because it signed when negotiated contract rates were unusually low. On the posted series, though, it signed at 4.79%, a level the posted rate held for every week of 2021, and its renewal increase of +$317 sits below the 2018 and 2019 cohorts. On negotiated rates the 2021 picture is likely worse than the posted version, because the discount off posted was unusually wide that year. That gap is the main limit of this dataset, and it cuts in one direction for 2021 borrowers. The 2026 renewal payment shock report looks at the 2021 cohort in more depth, including amortization extensions and negative equity.
Two renewals deep: the 10-year view
A 25-year mortgage on 5-year terms goes through four renewals. Looking only at the first one hides borrowers who met higher rates later in the loan. For the 17 cohorts that have reached a second renewal in the data, this table carries the balance forward another five years at the first renewal rate, then renews it for the remaining 15 years at the average posted rate ten years after signing. The change is measured against the payment the borrower started with, which is the number most households remember.
| Signed | Payment at signing | Payment, 1st renewal | 2nd renewal year | Posted 5-yr at 2nd renewal | Balance at 10 years | Payment, 2nd renewal | Vs. signing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | $3,925 | $3,288 | 2010 | 5.57% | $391,989 | $3,204 | -$721 (-18.4%) |
| 2001 | $3,636 | $3,425 | 2011 | 5.39% | $392,017 | $3,168 | -$468 (-12.9%) |
| 2002 | $3,502 | $3,505 | 2012 | 5.27% | $392,108 | $3,144 | -$358 (-10.2%) |
| 2003 | $3,325 | $3,502 | 2013 | 5.23% | $389,674 | $3,117 | -$208 (-6.3%) |
| 2004 | $3,274 | $3,132 | 2014 | 4.89% | $380,269 | $2,976 | -$298 (-9.1%) |
| 2005 | $3,193 | $3,091 | 2015 | 4.67% | $378,078 | $2,917 | -$276 (-8.6%) |
| 2006 | $3,392 | $3,074 | 2016 | 4.66% | $380,305 | $2,932 | -$460 (-13.6%) |
| 2007 | $3,505 | $3,059 | 2017 | 4.77% | $381,369 | $2,961 | -$544 (-15.5%) |
| 2008 | $3,533 | $3,052 | 2018 | 5.27% | $381,557 | $3,060 | -$473 (-13.4%) |
| 2009 | $3,107 | $2,912 | 2019 | 5.27% | $372,186 | $2,985 | -$122 (-3.9%) |
| 2010 | $3,072 | $2,855 | 2020 | 4.95% | $370,018 | $2,907 | -$165 (-5.4%) |
| 2011 | $3,020 | $2,844 | 2021 | 4.79% | $368,994 | $2,869 | -$151 (-5.0%) |
| 2012 | $2,985 | $2,865 | 2022 | 5.65% | $369,073 | $3,032 | +$47 (+1.6%) |
| 2013 | $2,974 | $2,983 | 2023 | 6.68% | $372,060 | $3,259 | +$285 (+9.6%) |
| 2014 | $2,877 | $2,968 | 2024 | 6.73% | $370,033 | $3,251 | +$374 (+13.0%) |
| 2015 | $2,815 | $2,881 | 2025 | 6.23% | $366,690 | $3,124 | +$309 (+11.0%) |
| 2016 | $2,812 | $2,843 | 2026 (YTD) | 6.10% | $365,591 | $3,090 | +$278 (+9.9%) |
Source: Bank of Canada Valet series V80691335, annual averages; BubbleWatch cohort math, updated November 12, 2026. Same $500,000, 25-year loan as the main table.
Until the 2012 cohort, every household that reached its second renewal was paying less than at signing. From 2012 on, the second renewal lands above the original payment. The 2014 cohort is the sharpest case: its first renewal in 2019 added +$91, and its second, in 2024 at 6.73%, left it +$374 above its 2014 starting payment even though a decade of principal had been repaid.
This is the part of the renewal wave that headline coverage tends to miss. Borrowers ten years into a mortgage usually have more equity and higher incomes than they did at signing, so a payment above the original is easier to carry than the same increase for a 2021 buyer. But it reverses a decade-long assumption, built into many household budgets, that the mortgage only gets cheaper over time.
Holding the payment: what extension costs in time
When a renewal rate is higher, the main lever to keep the monthly payment where it was is a longer amortization. The final column of the main table answers a narrow question: how many years of amortization at renewal would leave the payment unchanged? For the cohorts that renewed lower, the answer is under 20, which measures how much faster they could have paid off the loan. For the cohorts that renewed higher, it is above 20.
Read it as years added. The 2021 cohort would need 25 years remaining instead of 20, which adds 5.0 years to the life of the loan to avoid a $317 monthly increase. The 2019 cohort would need 26.2, adding 6.2. In the early cohorts the effect ran the other way: the 2000 cohort could have dropped more than five years off its remaining schedule just by keeping its old payment.
An extension is not free. Every added year means more interest paid over the life of the loan, and lenders set their own limits on how far an amortization can be stretched at renewal, which differ for insured and uninsured mortgages. The table shows the arithmetic of holding the payment, not whether a lender will offer it. The mortgage renewal cliff guide compares extension with switching lenders, shorter terms and lump-sum paydowns, and the BubbleWatch renewal calculator prices your own balance and rate.
The variable-rate side: prime at signing and at renewal
Variable mortgages are priced as prime plus or minus a spread, and many keep a fixed payment while prime moves, so the effect shows up as slower repayment instead of a higher bill. The table below sets each cohort's average prime rate at signing beside the average five years later, from Bank of Canada series V80691311. It does not compute variable-rate payments, because the spread a borrower negotiated is not in any public series.
| Signed | Prime avg at signing | Prime avg 5 years later | Prime change | Posted 5-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 7.24% | 4.40% | -2.84 pts | -2.36 pts |
| 2001 | 5.99% | 5.76% | -0.23 pts | -0.79 pts |
| 2002 | 4.20% | 6.10% | +1.90 pts | +0.01 pts |
| 2003 | 4.69% | 4.80% | +0.11 pts | +0.68 pts |
| 2004 | 4.00% | 2.42% | -1.58 pts | -0.56 pts |
| 2005 | 4.40% | 2.59% | -1.81 pts | -0.41 pts |
| 2006 | 5.76% | 3.00% | -2.76 pts | -1.25 pts |
| 2007 | 6.10% | 3.00% | -3.10 pts | -1.74 pts |
| 2008 | 4.80% | 3.00% | -1.80 pts | -1.87 pts |
| 2009 | 2.42% | 3.00% | +0.58 pts | -0.80 pts |
| 2010 | 2.59% | 2.79% | +0.20 pts | -0.90 pts |
| 2011 | 3.00% | 2.70% | -0.30 pts | -0.73 pts |
| 2012 | 3.00% | 2.89% | -0.11 pts | -0.50 pts |
| 2013 | 3.00% | 3.60% | +0.60 pts | +0.04 pts |
| 2014 | 3.00% | 3.95% | +0.95 pts | +0.38 pts |
| 2015 | 2.79% | 2.77% | -0.02 pts | +0.28 pts |
| 2016 | 2.70% | 2.45% | -0.25 pts | +0.13 pts |
| 2017 | 2.89% | 4.11% | +1.22 pts | +0.88 pts |
| 2018 | 3.60% | 6.94% | +3.34 pts | +1.41 pts |
| 2019 | 3.95% | 6.77% | +2.82 pts | +1.46 pts |
| 2020 | 2.77% | 4.91% | +2.14 pts | +1.28 pts |
| 2021 | 2.45% | 4.45% (YTD) | +2.00 pts | +1.31 pts |
Source: Bank of Canada Valet series V80691311 (prime) and V80691335 (posted 5-year), annual averages; updated November 12, 2026.
Prime often moves further than the posted 5-year rate. The 2018 cohort saw the largest five-year rise in prime, +3.34 pts, against +1.41 pts on the posted 5-year. For the 2021 cohort, prime rose from 2.45% to 4.45%. A 2021 variable borrower took the rise earlier, in 2022 and 2023, while a 5-year fixed borrower took it all at once on renewal day. Which group fared better depends on spreads and payment terms the public data cannot show, which is why this page does not rank them.
Using the table for your own mortgage
Because every figure scales with the loan, the per-$100,000 column is the quickest way to apply the table. Take your original mortgage amount in hundreds of thousands and multiply. A household that borrowed $350,000 in 2021 would see roughly 3.5 times $63, about $221 a month, on the posted-rate basis. The percentage column needs no scaling at all.
Three adjustments bring the estimate closer to a real renewal. First, if you signed below posted, compare the gap between your contract rate and the posted average for your signing year with the gap you can get at renewal; if your discount shrinks, your increase is larger than the table shows. Second, if you made prepayments, your balance is lower and the dollar increase is smaller, though the percentage stays similar. Third, if your amortization was 30 years rather than 25, your starting payment was lower and the balance at renewal is higher.
For anything beyond a quick estimate, use a calculator with your own numbers. Full mortgage and amortization tools for any loan size live on CalculatorVillage, in its mortgage calculators. For where rates stand this week, rather than the annual averages used here, see mortgage rates in Canada.
Methodology and limits
- Rates.Annual averages of the Bank of Canada's weekly chartered bank posted 5-year conventional mortgage rate (Valet series V80691335) and prime rate (V80691311), 2000 to 2026, as computed in the BubbleWatch rate history dataset. The 2026 figures cover January 1 to 2026-10-21, the latest observation in that dataset; they will change as the year completes.
- Payments. Fixed-rate payments with semi-annual compounding converted to a monthly rate, the Canadian convention, rounded to the dollar. The balance after five years rolls the rounded payment forward 60 months. Renewals use the remaining amortization: 20 years at the first renewal and 15 at the second.
- Timing. A cohort signs at its calendar-year average and renews at the average five calendar years later. A borrower who signed in January and one who signed in December of the same year faced different rates; annual averages smooth that out.
- What this is not. These are posted-rate benchmarks, not records of what any borrower paid, and not a forecast. Property taxes, insurance, fees and penalties are excluded. Nothing here is mortgage advice.
- Reproduce it. The script that builds this table from the checked-in rate data is in the site repository at scripts/data/mortgage-renewal-cohorts.mjs. It reproduces the 2021 cohort figures already published on the rate history page exactly.
Cite this dataset
BubbleWatch.ca, "Mortgage Renewal Payment History in Canada, Every Cohort 2000-2026", computed from Bank of Canada Valet series V80691335 and V80691311. Published November 12, 2026. https://bubblewatch.ca/reports/mortgage-renewal-payment-history-canada/
Data: cohort table (CSV), free to reuse with a link back to this page. Related BubbleWatch data: the Canada housing market dashboard, the affordability index, and every dated study in the reports index.
Frequently asked questions
How much did mortgage payments go up at renewal in 2026 for people who signed in 2021?
On the Bank of Canada posted 5-year series, a $500,000 mortgage signed at the 2021 average of 4.79% over 25 years cost $2,849 a month. Renewing the $441,032 balance in 2026 at the year-to-date average of 6.10% over the remaining 20 years gives $3,166, up $317 or +11.1%. That is about $63 a month for every $100,000 originally borrowed. Real contracts were signed below posted, so a specific household's increase will differ.
Is the 2026 renewal shock the worst in Canadian history?
Within this dataset, which starts in 2000, no. The 2021 cohort ranks third. The 2019 cohort, renewing in 2024, took the largest increase at +$365 (+12.2%). What is unusual about 2022-2026 is not one record year but five consecutive cohorts with increases above 7%, something no earlier stretch of the series shows. Renewals in the early 1980s, outside this window, faced much larger rate moves.
Why does the percentage increase not depend on the size of my mortgage?
Every payment in this table is a fixed multiple of the amount borrowed: double the principal and every payment, balance and dollar change doubles, while the percentage change stays the same. That is why the dataset uses one standard loan of $500,000 and adds a per-$100,000 column. Scale the dollar figures to your own original balance and the percentages carry over unchanged, as long as the rate and amortization assumptions match.
What if my original amortization was 30 years instead of 25?
A longer amortization lowers the starting payment and leaves a larger balance after five years, because less principal has been repaid. The renewal increase in percentage terms is broadly similar for the same rate move, but the dollar balance at renewal is higher. This dataset holds every cohort to the same 25-year schedule so years can be compared; for your own amortization, run your balance and rate through the mortgage renewal calculator linked on this page.
Do variable-rate borrowers show up in this table?
Not directly. Variable mortgages are priced off prime, and many have fixed payments that do not change when prime moves, so the shock arrives as slower principal repayment rather than a higher bill. The table shows prime's average at origination and at renewal for each cohort so the variable side can be compared. The largest five-year prime move in the data belongs to the 2018 cohort: 3.60% to 6.94%, +3.34 pts.
Can I reuse this data in an article or chart?
Yes. The full cohort table is available as a CSV on this page and is free to reuse with a link back to this page as the source. Please describe the figures as posted-rate benchmarks, not as what borrowers actually paid, and keep the 2026 renewal year marked as year to date. The underlying rate series are Bank of Canada Valet series V80691335 (posted 5-year) and V80691311 (prime).
If you are inside 120 days of your own renewal, the most useful next step is the checklist in the renewal cliff guide: it sets out what to ask your lender and when to start comparing offers.
Educational information only, not mortgage advice. Rates change weekly; confirm any rate with the lender before acting on it.